Match Info

Division 1 - Round 10

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Poland	15:30	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 3, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Arka Gdynia		Polonia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.30	2.88
	2.20	3.40	2.85
	2.17	3.30	2.85
	2.43	3.50	3.10
	2.26	3.53	2.95	Watch
	2.40	3.10	3.05
	2.35	3.39	2.87
	2.25	3.30	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (2.09)	3.35 ↑ (3.14)	2.93 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
40.7%

Draw
27.6%

Polonia Warsaw
31.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.2%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

28.5%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Polonia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Arndt D. (G) 20. Gruszkowski K. 3. Szota S. 4. Komenda M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 28. Ambrosiewicz M. 8. Sidibe A. 14. Kun D. 16. Solecki K. 9. Gutkovskis V. 17. Dziegielewski N.	1. Ravas H. (G) 22. Olszewski P. 97. Janasik P. 2. Kuusk M. 20. Olafsson D. 6. Gnaase D. (C) 36. Makowski T. 94. Paszkowski J. 23. Skrabb S. 17. Dadok R. 63. Barkovskiy G.
Substitutes
44. Dominguez J. 33. Grobelny J. (G) 11. Kocyla D. 71. Kowalski J. 23. Lewkot S. 6. Lipkowski K. 19. Pawlowski B. 98. Rama E. 77. Walus F.	14. Gorzedowski M. 71. Jelen M. (G) 21. Kapusta A. 9. Kostorz K. 27. Kowalczyk S. 26. Tabara K. 24. Terpilowski E. 7. Vega D. 8. Wojciechowski O.
Coaches
Grzegorczyk T.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Gutkovskis V. ⚽, Gojny D. (A),
38', 1 - 1, Dadok R. ⚽, Olszewski P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Sidibe A. ↓, Walus F. ↑,
66', Dziegielewski N. ↓, Kocyla D. ↑,
67', Kun D. ↓, Lewkot S. ↑,
67', Dadok R. ↓, Vega D. ↑,
75', Makowski T. ↓, Kowalczyk S. ↑,
83', Barkovskiy G. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
83', Paszkowski J. ↓, Kapusta A. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Kostorz K. ⚽,
88', Gutkovskis V. ↓, Pawlowski B. ↑,
88', Solecki K. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 12th and 6th in the Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).

Arka has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Polonia is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Arka has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:6 (averaging 1.8:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Arka against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 3:6 goals (averaging 1:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Polonia Warszawa	12	6	3	3	19:14	5	21
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16:16	0	14

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Polonia Warszawa: 8.98% Arka Gdynia: 2.02%

Last Results with these Odds

Polonia Warsaw - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 29.49%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Arka Gdynia - IFK Göteborg	3:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
20.09.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Arka Gdynia	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Warta Poznań - Arka Gdynia	3:0 ✺
06.09.26	Arka Gdynia - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Resovia Rzeszów - Arka Gdynia	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLLTW
- Polonia Warsaw
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Polonia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Polonia Bytom	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Stal Rzeszów - Polonia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
02.09.26	Polkowice - Polonia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
14.02.25	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw	0:0
03.08.24	Polonia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:3
17.02.24	Polonia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:3
07.08.23	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw	2:3
Club Friendly
19.01.13	Arka Gdynia - Polonia Warsaw	1:3

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