Match Info

1st Division - Round 22

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Capelli Sport Stadion (Koge)

Referee: Funder S. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HB Køge		Lyngby BK

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.51
	5.25	4.2	1.52
	5.35	4.35	1.54	Watch
	5.33	4.55	1.56
	5.68	4.56	1.5	Watch
	4.8	4	1.5
	5.31	4.33	1.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.32 ↑ (5.3)	4.28 ↑ (4.27)	1.52 (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HB Køge
17.4%

Draw
21.6%

Lyngby BK
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

21.7%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

21.1%

62.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HB Køge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Lyngby BK have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyngby BK than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

HB Køge - Lyngby BK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lyngby (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lyngby BK will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyngby (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayrak B. (G) 18. Salah M. 22. Jakobsen M. 23. Westergren M. 2. Bust L. 21. Jakobsen N. 7. Jensen M. (C) 27. Romer M. 10. Jensen Tue C. 20. Gothler A. 11. Mudi	1. Aegidius J. (G) 2. Buur O. 30. Fischer M. 5. Ivancevic M. (C) 15. Mouritsen N. 19. Fraulo G. 18. Thomasen J. 13. Dani 14. Sandgrav L. 10. Thorvaldsson I. 16. Bondergaard A.
Substitutes
17. Alkhoudari B. 6. Brodersen R. 16. Hald S. 28. Larsen G. 19. Semovski E. 29. Sommergaard N. (G) 8. Sorensen M. 14. Sorensen V. 9. Thomsen T.	6. Blume B. 7. Colyn S. 26. Gytkjaer F. 8. Hebo M. 20. Kaarsbo M. 12. Pierre N. 21. Snorre O. (G) 24. Storm T. 11. Warming M.
Coaches
Pedersen N.	Jespersen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Dani ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Westergren M. ⚽, Jakobsen N. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Gothler A. ⚽, Jensen M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Salah M. ↓, Sorensen V. ↑,
49', Jakobsen M. 🟨,
56', 2 - 2, Sorensen V. (Own goal),
57', 3 - 2, Jensen Tue C. ⚽,
64', Thomasen J. ↓, Hebo M. ↑,
64', Sandgrav L. ↓, Colyn S. ↑,
64', Buur O. ↓, Storm T. ↑,
73', 3 - 3, Fischer M. ⚽,
74', Mudi ↓, Thomsen T. ↑,
75', Thorvaldsson I. 🟨,
76', Thorvaldsson I. ↓, Gytkjaer F. ↑,
84', Jakobsen N. ↓, Brodersen R. ↑,
84', Gothler A. ↓, Semovski E. ↑,
86', Romer M. 🟨,
90+5', Jensen Tue C. ↓, Larsen G. ↑,
90+8', Semovski E. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 11 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

Køge is 1st Division (Relegation Group )

Lyngby is Qualified for 1st Division (Promotion Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Køge won 0.

Køge is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lyngby is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Køge may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lyngby is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Køge won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:42. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Køge won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:26. (average 1.5:3.3).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Koge: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

HB Køge - the odds 5.3 are the expected chance of winning is 17.45%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
13.03.26	B.93 Copenhagen - HB Køge	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	HB Køge - Esbjerg	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.02.26	HB Køge - Roskilde	Canceled ✺
31.01.26	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLT?L
- Lyngby BK
Danish 1 Division
13.03.26	Lyngby BK - Middelfart	4:1 ✺
09.03.26	Horsens - Lyngby BK	1:3 ✺
27.02.26	Lyngby BK - Kolding IF	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
20.02.26	Hillerød - Lyngby BK	2:2 ✺
12.02.26	Torpedo Kutaisi - Lyngby BK	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.01.26	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	2:4
Danish 1 Division
21.09.25	Lyngby BK - HB Køge	4:0
Danish Landspokal Cup
26.09.23	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	2:4 ET
Club Friendly
08.07.22	Lyngby BK - HB Køge	2:1
19.02.22	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	0:3
Danish 1 Division
04.12.21	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	3:3
17.09.21	Lyngby BK - HB Køge	1:1

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