Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	HLM		Guédiawaye

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.37	2.95
	2.68	2.48	3
	2.77	2.46	2.92
	2.89	2.4	3.09
	2.75	2.45	2.8
	2.71	2.33	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.8)	2.42 ↑ (2.37)	2.96 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HLM
32.5%

Draw
37.2%

Guédiawaye
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

37.9%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

39.8%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HLM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Guédiawaye has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for HLM than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guédiawaye than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

HLM - Guédiawaye Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (2 - 0)

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 13 and 12)

HLM is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guédiawaye is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guédiawaye may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, HLM won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

Including home match between the teams, HLM won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	ASC HLM	30	5	18	7	18:24	-6	33
13	Guediawaye	30	7	8	15	29:34	-5	28

Last Results with these Odds

Guédiawaye - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 29.96%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HLM
Senegal Ligue 1
25.04.26	Teungueth - HLM	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	HLM - Stade de Mbour	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Wally Daan - HLM	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	HLM - AJEL de Rufisque	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	Ouakam - HLM	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTLWL
- Guédiawaye FC
Senegal Ligue 1
25.04.26	Guédiawaye - Camberene	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Guédiawaye - Pikine	1:3 ✺
26.03.26	Sonacos - Guédiawaye	0:3 ✺
17.03.26	Guédiawaye - Génération Foot	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Linguère - Guédiawaye	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Senegal Ligue 1
07.01.26	Guédiawaye - HLM	0:1
17.03.25	HLM - Guédiawaye	0:0
03.11.24	Guédiawaye - HLM	0:1

HLM - Guédiawaye: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide