Match Info

Ligat ha'Al - Round 1

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Teddy Stadium (Jerusalem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 LIVE Israel


	Hapoel Jerusalem		MS Ashdod

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.35	3.2	2.75
	2.15	3.2	3.2
	2.22	3.23	3.44
	2.20	3.20	3.31	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.71)	3.22 ↑ (3.2)	3.13 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hapoel Jerusalem
41.2%

Draw
29%

MS Ashdod
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

29%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

29.6%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hapoel Jerusalem has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hapoel Jerusalem's performance.

MS Ashdod has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and MS Ashdod might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hapoel Jerusalem than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hapoel Jerusalem that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for MS Ashdod than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that MS Ashdod could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hapoel Jerusalem - MS Ashdod Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Hapoel Jerusalem will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hapoel Jerusalem: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hapoel Jerusalem (1.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hapoel Jerusalem will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hapoel Jerusalem (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Zamir N. (C) 16. Agvadish O. 3. Malmud N. 66. Domgjoni D. 20. Nadir O. 25. Idoko A. 8. Madmon I. 24. Badash G. 17. Distalfeld Y. 18. Baye O. 11. Don C. F.	25. Niemczycki K. (G) 15. Ben Zaken T. (C) 3. Diakita I. 16. Yashilirmak M. 8. Gordana R. 29. Batoum J. F. 26. Kimvuidi K. 77. Coll I. 11. Levi A. 13. Ansah E. 97. Nangis L.
Substitutes
7. Almagor O. 33. Dappa I. 6. Eshata A. 28. Gordin Anbary B. (G) 22. Haimovich T. 4. Laish Y. 15. Oli I. 23. Shafrau N. 26. Shalom H.	87. Amer M. 5. Bitton N. 45. Dasa O. 21. Gethon E. 18. Hadadi B. 9. Harush S. 1. Karmi R. (G) 98. Nachmani S. 10. Tamam I.
Coaches
Arie Z.	Silvas H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Gordana R. (Pen),
38', 1 - 0, Idoko A. ⚽, Don C. F. (A),
43', Ben Zaken T. 🟨,
43', Badash G. 🟨,
45+1', Kimvuidi K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Kimvuidi K. ↓, Tamam I. ↑,
46', Nangis L. ↓, Bitton N. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Ansah E. ⚽, Levi A. (A),
67', Domgjoni D. ↓, Haimovich T. ↑,
67', Baye O. ↓, Almagor O. ↑,
70', Levi A. ↓, Gethon E. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Tamam I. ⚽,
77', Bitton N. 🟨,
80', Batoum J. F. ↓, Amer M. ↑,
81', Idoko A. ↓, Dappa I. ↑,
81', Madmon I. ↓, Oli I. ↑,
87', Gethon E. 🟨,
88', Dappa I. 🟨,
89', Niemczycki K. 🟨,
90+3', Malmud N. 🟨,
90+4', Gordana R. ↓, Dasa O. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hapoel Jerusalem won 3.

Recent performances by Hapoel Jerusalem have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ashdod has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Hapoel Jerusalem won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:15. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hapoel Jerusalem won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Hapoel Jerusalem - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 34.15%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hapoel Jerusalem
Israeli Toto Cup
17.08.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Hapoel Jerusalem	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Hapoel Jerusalem - Maccabi Netanya	4:0 ✺
29.07.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - Hapoel Jerusalem	3:0 ✺
26.07.25	Hapoel Jerusalem - Hapoel Petah Tikva	1:0 ✺
22.07.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWLWW
- MS Ashdod
Israeli Toto Cup
16.08.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Bnei Sakhnin	3:2 penalties ✺
09.08.25	Hapoel Tel Aviv - MS Ashdod	2:0 ✺
05.08.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Petah Tikva	0:3 ✺
26.07.25	Maccabi Netanya - MS Ashdod	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Israeli Toto Cup
22.07.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2
Israeli Ligat haAl
29.03.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:1
25.01.25	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:1
20.10.24	Hapoel Jerusalem - MS Ashdod	1:0
Israeli Toto Cup
28.07.24	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	2:4
Israeli Ligat haAl
18.05.24	MS Ashdod - Hapoel Jerusalem	3:1
17.02.24	Hapoel Jerusalem - MS Ashdod	1:1

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