Match Info

Super Lig - Round 34

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Mersin Stadyumu (Mersin)

Referee: Yilmaz A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Hatayspor		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.5	1.5	Watch
	5.5	4.5	1.49
	5.64	4.73	1.48	Watch
	5.73	4.87	1.51
	5.57	4.76	1.51	Watch
	6	4.4	1.5
	5.83	4.58	1.51	Watch
	5.67	4.75	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.65 ↑ (3.86)	4.64 ↑ (3.61)	1.5 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hatayspor
16.7%

Draw
20.3%

İstanbul Başakşehir
63%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

26.5%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

27.1%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hatayspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hatayspor's form might have worsened.

İstanbul Başakşehir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting İstanbul Başakşehir's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hatayspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for İstanbul Başakşehir, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	11.8%	82.4%

Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Başakşehir (3.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: İstanbul Başakşehir will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): İstanbul Başakşehir will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Başakşehir (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bekaj V. (G) 2. Corekci K. (C) 3. Kilama G. 4. Calvo F. 88. Sertel C. 8. Massanga Matondo 6. Parmak A. 98. Boutobba B. 5. Saglam G. 7. Bamgboye F. 10. Strandberg C.	16. Sengezer M. (G) 42. Sahiner O. (C) 3. Opoku J. 5. Duarte L. 21. Operi C. 13. Crespo M. 2. Ozdemir B. 8. Kemen O. 26. Sari Y. 9. Piatek K. 23. Turuc D.
Substitutes
94. Aksoy D. 22. Alici K. 95. Buz Y. A. 78. Daduk E. (G) 27. Demir C. 34. Saricali D. (G) 23. Sarka B. 16. Temel S. 25. Yildiz A. 15. Yilmaz R. B.	17. Beyaz O. 77. Brnic I. 98. Dilmen D. (G) 22. Djalo M. 36. Ebosele F. 25. Figueiredo J. 20. Gunes U. 15. Gureler H. 7. Gurler S. 11. Keny P. P.
Coaches
Sahin M.	Atan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Strandberg C. ⚽, Saglam G. (A),
9', 1 - 1, Piatek K. ⚽, Crespo M. (A),
25', Bamgboye F. 🟨,
30', 1 - 2, Sari Y. ⚽, Crespo M. (A),
45+2', Piatek K. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', 2 - 2, Boutobba B. ⚽, Corekci K. (A),
62', Turuc D. ↓, Brnic I. ↑,
76', Bamgboye F. ↓, Yilmaz R. B. ↑,
76', Corekci K. ↓, Alici K. ↑,
76', Ozdemir B. ↓, Gunes U. ↑,
77', Kemen O. ↓, Figueiredo J. ↑,
77', Massanga Matondo 🟨,
82', 2 - 3, Brnic I. ⚽,
85', Operi C. 🟨,
87', Saglam G. ↓, Aksoy D. ↑,
88', Sari Y. ↓, Ebosele F. ↑,
88', Piatek K. ↓, Keny P. P. ↑,
89', Kilama G. 🟨,
90', Yilmaz R. B. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 4, Figueiredo J. (Pen),
90+3', Sertel C. ↓, Sarka B. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 6).

Hatayspor is Relegated to 1. Lig

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hatayspor won 0.

Hatayspor has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Başakşehir is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Başakşehir may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Başakşehir is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Hatayspor: Diack L. (Injury) Fernandes J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Başakşehir: Ergun O. (Broken ankle)

We predict that Başakşehir will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hatayspor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:20. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hatayspor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 2:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hatayspor
Turkish Super League
25.04.25	Beşiktaş - Hatayspor	5:1 ✺
18.04.25	Hatayspor - Konyaspor	2:3 ✺
13.04.25	Gaziantep - Hatayspor	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Hatayspor - Eyüpspor	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Kayserispor - Hatayspor	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
28.04.25	Göztepe - İstanbul Başakşehir	4:1 ✺
20.04.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Gaziantep	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Beşiktaş - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2 ✺
05.04.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Konyaspor	1:0 ✺
31.03.25	Eyüpspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
08.12.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	3:0
27.04.24	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2
Turkish Cup
07.02.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	2:1 penalties
Turkish Super League
10.12.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	1:0
07.11.22	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	3:3
24.04.22	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	3:0
05.12.21	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:3

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