Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 7

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Anibal Torres Costa (Tubarao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Hercílio Luz		Avaí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	2.9	1.98
	3.45	2.8	2.13
	4.17	2.91	2.06
	3.59	2.96	2.12	Watch
	3.29	3.19	2.16
	3.45	2.8	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)	2.1 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
25.4%

Draw
31.1%

Avaí
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29.4%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

28.8%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Hercílio Luz - Avaí Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Renan Rocha (G) 8. Alison 4. Alisson Santana 10. Gabriel Silva 3. Geninho (C) 11. Kadu Barone 6. Leo Herrero 2. Lucas Lopes 5. Matheus Neris 7. Richard 9. Yuri Sousa	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 78. Andrey 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 20. Gaspar 7. Hygor 16. Jamerson 95. Jonathan Costa 33. Mario Sergio 35. Pedrao 9. Vagner Love 77. Ze Ricardo
Substitutes
19. Alex Henrique 15. Davi Souza 21. Dudu Silva 23. Emanuel Jesus 17. Filipe Fraga 22. Gianluca (G) 12. Igor Pavan (G) 14. Luizao 20. Luiz Felipe 16. Mateus Mendes 13. Thawan 18. Vitinho	40. Burbano R. 99. Cleber 76. David 18. Gabryel F. 1. Igor Bohn (G) 63. Marcos Vinicius 66. Quaresma 37. Rigley 17. Tedesco N. 41. Thayllon 34. Wanderson

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Hygor ⚽,
27', Jonathan Costa 🟨,
28', Gabriel Silva 🟨,
45+2', Kadu Barone 🟨,
45+4', Gaspar 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gaspar ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
46', Gabriel Silva ↓, Vitinho ↑,
54', Eduardo Brock 🟨,
55', Geninho 🟨,
60', Alison 🟥,
67', Geninho ↓, Luizao ↑,
67', Richard ↓, Alex Henrique ↑,
71', Hygor ↓, Quaresma ↑,
72', Andrey ↓, Cleber ↑,
73', Matheus Neris ↓, Filipe Fraga ↑,
74', Jamerson 🟨,
79', Jamerson ↓, Tedesco N. ↑,
82', Vagner Love ↓, Rigley ↑,
83', Yuri Sousa ↓, Dudu Silva ↑,
83', 0 - 2, Rigley ⚽,
86', Rigley 🟨,
88', 0 - 3, Jonathan Costa ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 3.

Hercílio Luz is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Avaí is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avaí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Hercílio Luz have a series of guest games.

Avaí will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:11 (average 0.9:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Hercílio Luz won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
29.01.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Hercílio Luz	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Hercílio Luz - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
23.01.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Figueirense - Hercílio Luz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLLT
- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.25	Avaí - Joinville	3:0 ✺
29.01.25	Chapecoense - Avaí	0:0 ✺
25.01.25	Avaí - Figueirense	0:1 ✺
22.01.25	Caravaggio - Avaí	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	Brusque - Avaí	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.24	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	2:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
01.10.23	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	3:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.23	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	1:0
05.03.22	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	3:0
18.04.21	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	2:0
10.03.19	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	1:0
23.01.19	Avaí - Hercílio Luz	3:0

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