Match Info

National League North - Round 4

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Edgar Street (Hereford)


	Hereford		Chorley

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.6	2.8
	2.4	3.1	2.55
	2.4	3.3	2.68
	2.24	3.32	3.1
	3.86	3.93	1.78	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.5
	2.41	3.34	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.42)	3.4 ↓ (3.62)	2.58 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hereford
36.1%

Draw
27.6%

Chorley
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

25%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

24.9%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Hereford - Chorley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Hewitt C. ⚽,
11', 0 - 2, Blakeman A. ⚽,
22', 0 - 3, Sampson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 1 - 3, Nto E. ⚽,
62', 1 - 4, Sampson J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Hereford has had a series of away games.

Recently, Chorley has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hereford won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Hereford won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.48%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hereford FC
English National League North
19.08.25	Buxton - Hereford	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Hereford - King`s Lynn Town	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Spennymoor Town - Hereford	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Alvechurch - Hereford	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Malvern Town - Hereford	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLTT
- Chorley
English National League North
19.08.25	Chorley - Scarborough Athletic	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Chorley - Chester	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Darlington - Chorley	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.25	Chorley - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
11.07.25	Chorley - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
14.12.24	Hereford - Chorley	1:0
17.08.24	Chorley - Hereford	1:1
09.03.24	Hereford - Chorley	0:1
28.10.23	Chorley - Hereford	1:2
07.03.23	Chorley - Hereford	2:0
06.12.22	Hereford - Chorley	1:1
29.01.22	Chorley - Hereford	3:2

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