Match Info

3rd Division - Round 10

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Holbæk		ASA Aarhus

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.50	5.00
	1.42	4.35	5.55
	1.44	4.55	5.64
	1.44	4.57	5.8	Watch
	1.42	4.5	5.55
	1.5	4.45	5.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.65)	4.49 ↑ (4.16)	5.52 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holbæk
63.2%

Draw
20.3%

ASA Aarhus
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

22.2%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

21.5%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holbæk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Holbæk's performance.

ASA Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and ASA Aarhus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holbæk than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Holbæk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ASA Aarhus than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Holbæk - ASA Aarhus Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Holbæk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, ⚽,
86', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The table topper faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 1st in the Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group: ) and 5th in the Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group: )).

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Holbæk could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Holbæk as the clear and undisputed favorite.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Holbaek	10	7	1	2	26:18	8	22
6	ASA Aarhus	10	5	1	4	14:14	0	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holbæk B&I
Danish 3 Division
25.09.26	Helsingør - Holbæk	5:1 ✺
18.09.26	Holbæk - Ringsted	5:2 ✺
13.09.26	Hørsholm-Usserød - Holbæk	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Ishøj IF - Holbæk	0:4 ✺
29.08.26	Holbæk - Næsby	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWW
- ASA Aarhus
Danish 3 Division
26.09.26	ASA Aarhus - Hørsholm-Usserød	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Brønshøj BK - ASA Aarhus	5:1 ✺
13.09.26	ASA Aarhus - Næsby	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sundby - ASA Aarhus	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	ASA Aarhus - Holstebro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLWLW

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