Match Info

Premier League - Relegation Group - Round 3

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Tuen Mun tang Shiu Kin Sports Ground (Hongkong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hong-kong	on.cc


	Hong Kong Rangers		Kowloon City

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.85
	2.26	3.56	2.96
	2.39	3.44	2.64	Watch
	2.2	3.5	2.63
	2.25	3.86	2.74
	2.43	3.35	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.43)	3.52 ↑ (3.35)	2.68 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hong Kong Rangers
40.1%

Draw
25.9%

Kowloon City
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.9%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

24.7%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hong Kong Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Kowloon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hong Kong Rangers than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hong Kong Rangers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kowloon City than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kowloon City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hong Kong Rangers - Kowloon City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Chan K. (G) 29. Cortes M. 5. Hayashi R. 3. Kim Min-Kyu 7. Lau Chi-Lok (C) 4. Leung W. F. 35. Panigazzi M. 23. Parra W. 37. Tsang C. 28. Wong M. 14. Yakubu Nassam I.	13. Kwong T. (G) 7. Bah M. H. 8. Chiu W. 5. Eli D. (C) 23. Ho L. 27. Kayron 6. Kessi 30. Kim Min-sub 14. Loong T. 11. Luizinho 2. Yu Pui-Hong
Substitutes
99. Cheng Tsz-Sum 22. Chen H. 30. Chow W. 79. Chow Y. I. 44. Fung Kwun-Ming 27. Lam Lok-Yin J. 67. Lau Y. 18. Lau Y. A. 32. Li W. H. 11. Ma Y. 16. Wegener M. 70. Yip Ka-Yu (G)	1. Cheung K. (G) 92. Fung T. 80. Kwan H. 35. Lam C. Y. 77. Lee C. 10. Park M. 24. Tsang Ka-Chun 21. Tsang Kam-To 31. Wong H. 91. Wong L. 22. Yang C. 88. Yuen Ho-Chun (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Kayron ⚽,
17', Hayashi R. ↓, Wegener M. ↑,
38', Kim Min-sub ↓, Tsang Kam-To ↑,
45', 1 - 1, Panigazzi M. ⚽,
45+4', Chiu W. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 2, Luizinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wong M. 🟨,
58', Lau Chi-Lok ↓, Chen H. ↑,
58', Wong M. ↓, Lau Y. ↑,
65', Bah M. H. 🟨,
67', Panigazzi M. 🟨,
68', Ho L. ↓, Fung T. W. ↑,
79', Parra W. ↓, Lau Y. A. ↑,
85', Kayron ↓, Yang C. ↑,
85', Chiu W. ↓, Wong L. ↑,
86', Yakubu Nassam I. ↓, Ma Y. ↑,
88', Yang C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hong Kong Rangers won 2.

Hong Kong Rangers is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Kowloon City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kowloon City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Hong Kong Rangers won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 2.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hong Kong Rangers won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:6. (average 2.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Hong Kong Rangers	5	1	0	4	6:14	-8	3
10	Kowloon City	4	1	0	3	4:11	-7	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hong Kong Rangers
Hong Kong Premier League
19.04.26	Hong Kong Rangers - Southern District	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Kitchee - Hong Kong Rangers	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	Eastern AA - Hong Kong Rangers	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Hong Kong Rangers - Wofoo Tai Po	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	North District - Hong Kong Rangers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTLL
- Kowloon City FC
Hong Kong Premier League
26.04.26	Southern District - Kowloon City	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Kowloon City - Eastern District	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Kowloon City - Southern District	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Lee Man - Kowloon City	0:0 ✺
Hong Kong League Cup
18.03.26	Kitchee - Kowloon City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Hong Kong Premier League
01.03.26	Kowloon City - Hong Kong Rangers	5:1
04.10.25	Hong Kong Rangers - Kowloon City	2:3
Hong Kong Senior Shield
28.09.25	Hong Kong Rangers - Kowloon City	4:0
Hong Kong Premier League
27.04.25	Kowloon City - Hong Kong Rangers	0:5
15.02.25	Hong Kong Rangers - Kowloon City	2:2
Hong Kong Sapling Cup
17.11.24	Hong Kong Rangers - Kowloon City	2:1
Hong Kong Premier League
06.10.24	Kowloon City - Hong Kong Rangers	2:0

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