Match Info

ENGLAND: ISTHMIAN LEAGUE PREMIER DIVISION - ROUND 22

Date: 29 December 2023, Friday


	Hornchurch		Lewes

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.6	6.25
	1.36	5	6	Watch
	1.36	5.19	6.96
	1.36	5.19	6.96
	1.29	4.6	7
	1.33	4.9	6.85
	1.36	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.55)	4.93 ↑ (4)	6.57 ↑ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hornchurch
67.7%

Draw
18.5%

Lewes
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

22.7%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

22.1%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hornchurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hornchurch's performance.

Lewes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hornchurch that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lewes than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Hornchurch - Lewes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 2.

Hornchurch is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lewes is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lewes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Hornchurch is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Hornchurch won 3 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 20-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Hornchurch won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Hornchurch
English Isthmian League Premier Division
23.12.23	Hornchurch - Canvey Island	2:0 ✺
16.12.23	Chatham Town - Hornchurch	2:0 ✺
02.12.23	Hornchurch - Whitehawk	0:0 ✺
25.11.23	Kingstonian - Hornchurch	0:3 ✺
18.11.23	Hornchurch - Potters Bar Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WLTWW
- Lewes FC
English Isthmian League Premier Division
26.12.23	Whitehawk - Lewes	1:2 ✺
16.12.23	Lewes - Cheshunt	2:1 ✺
09.12.23	Lewes - Dulwich Hamlet	0:2 ✺
02.12.23	Concord Rangers - Lewes	4:1 ✺
25.11.23	Lewes - Haringey Borough	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Isthmian League Premier Division
26.08.23	Lewes - Hornchurch	2:2
04.03.23	Hornchurch - Lewes	2:2
25.10.22	Lewes - Hornchurch	2:2
29.01.22	Hornchurch - Lewes	3:1
25.09.21	Lewes - Hornchurch	1:3
12.02.20	Lewes - Hornchurch	0:0
27.04.19	Lewes - Hornchurch	0:0

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