Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 10

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Gothia Park Academy (Göteborg)

Referee: Wolf V. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Max, Veikkaus TV
Sweden	Discovery+, max Extra 3, Max, TV4 Play


	Häcken		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.6	3.7	Watch
	1.85	3.75	3.7
	1.96	4	3.6	Watch
	2	3.91	3.56
	1.98	3.89	3.48	Watch
	1.8	3.75	4
	1.87	3.6	3.9	Watch
	1.95	3.95	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.68)	3.81 ↓ (4.1)	3.69 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Häcken
49.4%

Draw
24.9%

Värnamo
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

23.2%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

22.6%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Häcken has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Häcken's form might have worsened.

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Värnamo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Häcken than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Häcken, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Värnamo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Häcken - Värnamo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Värnamo (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Häcken will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Häcken will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Häcken (votes: 3 - 75%). Värnamo (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Berisha E. (G) 28. Ohman F. 8. Andersen S. 4. Lode M. 21. Lundkvist A. 16. Dahbo P. 15. Leach S. 10. Rygaard M. (C) 39. Brusberg I. 19. Dembe J. 29. Nioule S.	1. Keto H. (G) 5. Larsson V. 6. Andersson H. 24. Grozdanic E. 3. Bjornstrom A. 22. Thern S. (C) 8. Le Roux L. 11. Wenderson 18. Alsalkhadi M. 9. Kalu J. 10. Zeljkovic A.
Substitutes
26. Abrahamsson P. (G) 45. Beqiri L. 41. Ek N. 17. Engdahl B. 44. Hilvenius H. 40. Jansson C. 13. Jansson S. 42. Mitrovic N. 22. Zecevic N.	21. Abdulrazak I. 39. Andersson V. (G) 32. Bilalovic K. 15. Cibicki P. 7. Johansson C. 28. Junior Adjei F. 4. Mohammed R. 2. Rapp J. 20. Winsth F.
Coaches
Gustafsson J.	Sandsto A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Leach S. ⚽, Rygaard M. (A),
44', Alsalkhadi M. ↓, Johansson C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kalu J. ↓, Cibicki P. ↑,
58', Zeljkovic A. ↓, Bilalovic K. ↑,
58', Thern S. ↓, Junior Adjei F. ↑,
62', Nioule S. 🟨,
67', Ohman F. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
76', Lundkvist A. ↓, Engdahl B. ↑,
83', Bjornstrom A. ↓, Rapp J. ↑,
84', Brusberg I. ↓, Mitrovic N. ↑,
88', Larsson V. 🟨,
89', 2 - 0, Leach S. (Pen),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Häcken won 2.

Recent performances by Häcken have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Värnamo's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Värnamo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Häcken is the team to beat.

There will not play in Häcken: Hammar J. (Inactive) Inoussa Z. (Leg Injury) Linde A. (Hamstring Injury) Vaisanen L. (Injury) Wembangomo B. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Häcken won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:7. (average 2.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Häcken won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:3. (average 2.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BK Häcken
Swedish Allsvenskan
14.05.25	Häcken - AIK	3:3 ✺
10.05.25	Sirius - Häcken	2:0 ✺
04.05.25	Norrköping - Häcken	0:2 ✺
27.04.25	Häcken - Hammarby	1:1 ✺
23.04.25	Häcken - Degerfors	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLWTL
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
15.05.25	Värnamo - Malmö	2:2 ✺
10.05.25	GAIS - Värnamo	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Halmstad - Värnamo	4:2 ✺
27.04.25	Värnamo - Norrköping	1:3 ✺
24.04.25	Värnamo - AIK	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Allsvenskan
25.08.24	Häcken - Värnamo	1:1
20.07.24	Värnamo - Häcken	2:2
22.07.23	Värnamo - Häcken	1:0
29.04.23	Häcken - Värnamo	3:1
27.08.22	Häcken - Värnamo	4:1
09.05.22	Värnamo - Häcken	1:2
Svenska Cupen
18.02.18	Häcken - Värnamo	2:0

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