Match Info

Allsvenskan - Round 5

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo)

Referee: Aganovic A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Finland	Max
Sweden	Discovery+, max Extra 3, Max, TV4 Play


	Värnamo		AIK

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.63	Watch
	3.2	3	2.3
	3	3	2.65	Watch
	2.97	3.07	2.72
	2.89	2.97	2.73	Watch
	3.3	3	2.3
	2.99	3.07	2.44	Watch
	3	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.2)	3.03 ↓ (3.4)	2.55 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
31.5%

Draw
31.3%

AIK
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

27.7%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

27.2%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

AIK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AIK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AIK than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AIK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	6.2%	81.2%

Värnamo - AIK Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - AIK (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - AIK (1.79) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: AIK will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AIK will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Värnamo (votes: 1 - 6.7%). AIK (votes: 14 - 93.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 2. Rapp J. 6. Andersson H. 24. Grozdanic E. 3. Bjornstrom A. 22. Thern S. (C) 8. Le Roux L. 28. Junior Adjei F. 7. Johansson C. 18. Alsalkhadi M. 9. Kalu J.	15. Nordfeldt K. (G) 32. Benkovic F. 4. Papagiannopoulos S. 26. van der Laan E. 17. Thychosen M. 10. Celina B. 33. Csongvai A. 7. Saletros A. (C) 19. Besirovic D. 9. Kakoullis A. 43. Andersson V.
Substitutes
39. Andersson V. (G) 32. Bilalovic K. 17. Bozicevic F. 5. Larsson V. 16. Lohikangas A. 4. Mohammed R. 11. Wenderson 20. Winsth F. 10. Zeljkovic A.	47. Fesshaie A. 11. Guidetti J. 8. Hove J. 30. Joelsson K. (G) 5. Karlsson K. 12. Pavey C. 20. Uddenas O. 22. Uronen J. 21. Wilson S.
Coaches
Sibila F.	Thomassen M.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Superettan and 4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Värnamo won 1.

Värnamo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AIK is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

AIK will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in AIK: Al Saed D. (Knee Injury) Ayari T. (Knee Injury) Edh E. (Back Injury) Ellingsen M. (Leg Injury) Hofvander W. (Leg Injury) Redkin A. (Inactive) Tiedemann B. (Groin Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Värnamo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:13 (average 0.9:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Värnamo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Allsvenskan
20.04.25	Brommapojkarna - Värnamo	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Värnamo - IFK Göteborg	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Degerfors - Värnamo	1:0 ✺
31.03.25	Värnamo - Sirius	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Värnamo - Helsingborg	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW
- AIK Fotboll
Swedish Allsvenskan
20.04.25	Öster - AIK	0:1 ✺
14.04.25	AIK - Malmö	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	AIK - Norrköping	4:3 ✺
31.03.25	GAIS - AIK	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Rosenborg - AIK	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Svenska Cupen
28.02.25	AIK - Värnamo	2:0
Swedish Allsvenskan
31.08.24	Värnamo - AIK	0:1
24.04.24	AIK - Värnamo	2:0
12.11.23	AIK - Värnamo	3:1
24.04.23	Värnamo - AIK	1:0
14.08.22	AIK - Värnamo	2:2
24.07.22	Värnamo - AIK	2:3

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