Match Info

ARGENTINA: COPA DE LA LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 1

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Dovalo P. (Arg)


	Independiente		Colón

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.1	4.33
	2	3.2	4.3
	1.98	3.12	4.76
	1.93	3.18	4.45
	1.97	3	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.11)	3.12 ↓ (3.21)	4.43 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
48.2%

Draw
30.4%

Colón
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

29.1%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

26.3%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Colón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colón might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colón than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Independiente - Colón Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Colón will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (G) 22. Isla M. 26. Aguilar F. 3. Elizalde E. 79. Costa A. 11. Mancuello F. 23. Marcone I. 28. Ortiz S. 29. Martinez B. 32. Canelo A. 7. Cauteruccio M.	17. Chicco I. (G) 23. Espinola A. 6. Goltz P. 33. Garces F. 40. Delgado R. 34. Moreyra S. 31. Alvarez F. 19. Galvan T. 10. Botta R. 7. Batallini D. 27. Benitez J.
Substitutes
1. Bacchia R. (G) 13. Baez C. 34. Gimenez M. 17. Gonzalez L. 2. Laso J. 8. Lopez K. 14. Martin Sarrafiore 15. Perez D. 27. Pozzo T. A. 35. Salle S. 24. Sayago D. 21. Vallejo J.	9. Abila R. 11. Ibanez J. 12. Ibanez M. (G) 21. Meza E. 36. Nardelli G. 42. Ojeda L. 14. Perlaza B. 30. Pierotti S. 8. Silva G. 22. Toledo J. 16. Troncoso L. 5. Vega C.
Coaches
Zielinski R.	Gorosito N.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Independiente won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Independiente is a favorite.

There will not play in Independiente: Marquez De Meneses R. L. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Independiente won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 29-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Copa Argentina
15.08.23	Independiente - Central Córdoba	1:0 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.07.23	Independiente - Boca Juniors	0:2 ✺
23.07.23	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	1:0 ✺
16.07.23	Central Córdoba - Independiente	0:1 ✺
11.07.23	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWL
- CA Colón
Copa Argentina
15.08.23	Colón - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.07.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Colón	2:0 ✺
25.07.23	Colón - Tigre	1:3 ✺
16.07.23	Argentinos Juniors - Colón	1:0 ✺
10.07.23	Colón - Belgrano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.03.23	Independiente - Colón	2:2
01.08.22	Colón - Independiente	0:3
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.04.22	Colón - Independiente	2:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.08.21	Independiente - Colón	3:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
31.05.21	Independiente - Colón	0:2
28.11.20	Colón - Independiente	1:2
09.11.20	Independiente - Colón	1:1

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