Match Info

ARGENTINA: LIGA PROFESIONAL - ROUND 27

Date: 29 July 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Ramirez N. (Arg)


	Independiente		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.8	2.8
	2.87	2.7	2.8
	2.88	2.8	2.88
	3.09	2.72	2.93
	3.1	2.57	2.9	Watch
	3	2.7	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.96)	2.72 ↓ (3.03)	2.84 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
31.8%

Draw
34.9%

Boca Juniors
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

30%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

29.5%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boca Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Boca Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	63.6%	27.3%

Independiente - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 63.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (G) 30. Barcia M. 13. Baez C. 3. Elizalde E. 79. Costa A. 28. Ortiz S. 23. Marcone I. (C) 8. Lopez K. 35. Salle S. 9. Cauteruccio M. 29. Martinez B.	1. Romero S. (G) 57. Weigandt M. 4. Figal J. 15. Valentini N. 19. Barco V. 36. Medina C. 5. Varela A. (C) 21. Fernandez I. 29. Briasco N. 9. Benedetto D. 16. Miguel Merentiel
Substitutes
36. Atencio R. 34. Gimenez M. 19. Gomez L. 2. Laso J. 39. Lopez S. 37. Martinez D. 14. Martin Sarrafiore 5. Mulet A. 4. Ostachuk P. 15. Perez D. 25. Segovia D. (G) 21. Vallejo J.	50. Anselmino A. 44. Carrasco J. 31. Cortes B. 18. Fabra F. 13. Garcia J. (G) 23. Gonzalez D. 20. Ramirez J. 6. Rojo M. 14. Rolon E. 2. Roncaglia F. 3. Sandez A. 7. Zeballos E.
Coaches
Zielinski R.	Almiron J.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Independiente won 1.

Recent matches Independiente is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Boca Juniors is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Boca Juniors could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Independiente: Marquez De Meneses R. L. (Injury) Pozzo T. A. (Injury)

There will not play in Boca Juniors: Aranda G. (Injury) Langoni L. (Injury) Morales G. (Injury) Rojo M. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Independiente won 3 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 20-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.07.23	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente	1:0 ✺
16.07.23	Central Córdoba - Independiente	0:1 ✺
11.07.23	Independiente - Newells Old Boys	0:2 ✺
07.07.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Independiente	1:1 ✺
02.07.23	Independiente - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLTW
- Boca Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.07.23	Boca Juniors - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
20.07.23	Barracas Central - Boca Juniors	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.07.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Boca Juniors	1:3 ✺
10.07.23	Boca Juniors - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
06.07.23	Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Torneos De Verano
07.01.23	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.10.22	Boca Juniors - Independiente	2:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
26.02.22	Independiente - Boca Juniors	2:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.11.21	Independiente - Boca Juniors	1:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
28.03.21	Independiente - Boca Juniors	1:1
20.12.20	Independiente - Boca Juniors	1:2
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.01.20	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0

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