Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Arasa N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	AFA Play, ESPN Premium, FOX Sports 2
Bolivia	16:00	ESPN 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	17:00	Disney+
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 6
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	15:00	ESPN 6
Germany	21:00	Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	22:00	Sport 1
Italy	21:00	Como TV, Sportitalia
Mexico	14:00	Disney+
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Paraguay	17:00	ESPN 6
Peru	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 6
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 4, Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones
Switzerland	21:00	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	16:00	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, ESPN 6
International	20:00	OneFootball TV


	Independiente		Boca Juniors

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.25	1.91
	3.90	3.10	2.00
	4.10	3.10	1.98	Watch
	4.54	3.26	1.99
	3.53	3.16	2.21	Watch
	4.45	3.20	1.95
	4.58	3.18	1.97	Watch
	3.95	3.15	2.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (3.68)	3.18 ↓ (3.39)	2 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
22.7%

Draw
29.9%

Boca Juniors
47.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.7%

27.8%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

27.2%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Boca Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Independiente - Boca Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Boca Juniors will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Mele S. (G) 4. Arias S. 35. Arrayago J. 36. Valdez S. 5. Banegas N. 16. Perez Curci M. 23. Marcone I. (C) 8. Meza M. 7. Montiel S. 6. Avila C. 24. Palais J.	1. Montero A. (G) 17. Lozano L. 2. Di Lollo L. 42. Herrera F. 27. Braida M. 25. Ascacibar S. 5. Paredes L. (C) 18. Delgado M. 20. Velasco A. 16. Miguel Merentiel 19. Flores L.
Substitutes
19. Abaldo M. 10. Cabral L. 2. Calderon F. 13. Fedorco J. 29. Godoy L. 32. Martinez D. 14. Millan L. 9. Morales I. 30. Parmo T. 33. Rey R. (G) 34. Tempone F. 22. Zabala F.	15. Alarcon Cepeda W. H. 6. Battaglia R. 12. Brey L. (G) 7. Carlos Palacios 32. Costa A. 4. Figal J. 9. Gimenez M. 24. Gorosito D. 26. Pellegrino M. 53. Ruiz J. 13. Valencia E. 22. Villa S.
Coaches
Viera J.	Arruabarrena R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Di Lollo L. 🟨,
45+1', Marcone I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Avila C. 🟨,
60', Velasco A. ↓, Villa S. ↑,
64', Perez Curci M. 🟨,
66', Miguel Merentiel ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
67', Delgado M. 🟨,
69', Palais J. ↓, Abaldo M. ↑,
77', Herrera F. 🟨,
77', Meza M. ↓, Morales I. ↑,
78', Perez Curci M. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
81', Flores L. ↓, Carlos Palacios ↑,
86', Avila C. ↓, Parmo T. ↑,
86', Montiel S. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
88', 0 - 1, Herrera F. ⚽, Villa S. (A),
90+2', Braida M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 3rd in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 1.

In recent outings, Independiente has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Boca Juniors is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Independiente could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Boca Juniors holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Independiente: De Irastorza J. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Boca Juniors: Aranda T. (Knee Injury) Bareiro A. (Lower Back Injury) Belmonte T. (Inactive) Marchesin A. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Independiente: Martino R. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Independiente has recorded 3 wins, 11 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:24 (averaging 0.9:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Independiente against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with 8:10 goals (averaging 0.8:1 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Boca Juniors: 15.63% Independiente: 1.88%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.10.26	Racing - Independiente	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	Talleres de Córdoba - Independiente	0:0 ✺
02.10.26	Independiente - Instituto Córdoba	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Unión Santa Fe - Independiente	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Independiente - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTLWT
- Boca Juniors
Copa Sudamericana
20.10.26	Vasco da Gama - Boca Juniors	1:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.10.26	Boca Juniors - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.10.26	Boca Juniors - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.10.26	Instituto Córdoba - Boca Juniors	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	Boca Juniors - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Boca Juniors - Independiente	1:1
19.05.25	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:1
14.12.24	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0
29.07.23	Independiente - Boca Juniors	0:2
Torneos De Verano
07.01.23	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.10.22	Boca Juniors - Independiente	2:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
26.02.22	Independiente - Boca Juniors	2:2

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