Match Info

Division Intermedia - Round 26

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Paraguay	Tigo Sports+


	Independiente Asuncion		Sportivo Carapeguá

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.20	3.50
	2.08	3.05	3.10
	1.95	3.30	3.83
	1.93	3.34	3.96	Watch
	1.87	3.05	3.75
	1.95	3.70	3.49
	1.89	3.15	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.22)	3.26 ↑ (3.08)	3.61 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Independiente Asuncion
46.8%

Draw
28%

Sportivo Carapeguá
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

29.4%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.6%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Asuncion's performance.

Sportivo Carapeguá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Carapeguá than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Independiente FBC will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 0 - 1, Rodriguez J. ⚽,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 6th and 8th).

Both teams enter this match with positive momentum from recent weeks.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Independiente FBC holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Independiente FBC has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:7 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Independiente FBC against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1.5:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Independiente FBC	27	10	10	7	40:35	5	40
7	Sp. Carapegua	27	11	6	10	32:39	-7	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Asuncion
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
20.09.26	12 de Junio - Independiente Asuncion	0:4 ✺
14.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Encarnación	1:0 ✺
09.09.26	Deportivo Santaní - Independiente Asuncion	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Fernando de la Mora	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	3 de Noviembre - Independiente Asuncion	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWWTL
- Sportivo Carapeguá
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
20.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Tacuary	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Atlético Tembetary - Sportivo Carapeguá	1:2 ✺
10.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Benjamín Aceval	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Paraguarí	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	12 de Junio - Sportivo Carapeguá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Division Intermedia
06.06.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Independiente Asuncion	0:2
03.08.25	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá	3:3
28.04.25	Sportivo Carapeguá - Independiente Asuncion	1:1
19.08.24	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá	0:1
08.07.23	Sportivo Carapeguá - Independiente Asuncion	2:0

Upcoming Matches