Match Info

ARGENTINA: Copa de la Liga Profesional - Round 14

Date: 15 April 2024, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rapallini F. (Arg)


	Independiente Rivadavia		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.91	Watch
	4.2	3.2	1.93
	4.2	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.46	3.27	1.97
	4.46	3.27	1.96
	3.5	3.2	2
	4.12	3.29	1.87
	4	3.25	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.12 ↑ (3.18)	3.26 ↑ (3.18)	1.94 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
22.8%

Draw
28.8%

Vélez Sársfield
48.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.5%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Rivadavia's form might have worsened.

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Rivadavia than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Rivadavia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Independiente Rivadavia - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Independiente R will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Vélez will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Monllor M. (G) 41. Ruiz M. 23. Petrasso F. 42. Palacios T. 24. Dionisio A. 11. Tonetto D. 28. Maidana F. 8. Ham E. 16. Ostchega T. 10. Reali M. 22. Castro F.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 2. Mammana E. 34. Fernandez D. 3. Gomez E. 32. Ordonez C. 26. Bouzat A. 22. Aquino C. (C) 27. Fernandez T. 9. Braian Romero 20. Pizzini F.
Substitutes
29. Abecasis L. 18. Ascacibar J. 31. Asenjo M. 2. Bianchi B. 13. Cavallaro J. 6. Maidana M. 32. Marinelli G. (G) 3. Mas E. 44. Moreno F. 19. Napolitano A. 43. Sartori F. 36. Sonora J.	10. Cabrera E. 35. Caseres S. 37. Cavanagh T. 42. Garzon L. (G) 31. Gomez V. 29. Jara L. 14. Lobato L. 21. Mendez J. 36. Montoro A. 17. Pineiro R. 30. Sarco A. 18. Vecino T.
Coaches
Cicotello M.	Quinteros G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Tonetto D. 🟨,
36', Braian Romero 🟨,
36', Palacios T. 🟨,
37', Aquino C. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Pizzini F. ⚽,
45+3', Marchiori T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Braian Romero ↓, Vecino T. ↑,
46', Mammana E. ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
50', Dionisio A. 🟨,
53', Tonetto D. ↓, Ascacibar J. ↑,
53', Dionisio A. ↓, Cavallaro J. ↑,
61', Reali M. 🟨,
68', Maidana F. ↓, Asenjo M. ↑,
70', Pizzini F. ↓, Sarco A. ↑,
81', Aquino C. ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
86', Ruiz M. ↓, Sartori F. ↑,
86', Castro F. ↓, Moreno F. ↑,
89', Fernandez T. ↓, Caseres S. ↑,
90+4', Montoro A. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 6).

Recent matches Independiente Rivadavia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vélez is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Vélez will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Independiente Rivadavia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
06.04.24	Talleres de Córdoba - Independiente Rivadavia	1:1 ✺
31.03.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Banfield	1:2 ✺
Copa Argentina
27.03.24	Independiente Rivadavia - Argentino de Quilmes	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.24	Independiente Rivadavia - River Plate Montevideo	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.03.24	Atlético Tucumán - Independiente Rivadavia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 TLWWT
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
05.04.24	Vélez Sársfield - Argentinos Juniors	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Talleres de Córdoba - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Vélez Sársfield - Instituto Córdoba	1:0 ✺
11.03.24	Banfield - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
05.03.24	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Argentina
08.06.22	Vélez Sársfield - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0

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