Match Info

Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Amalfitani (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
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China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Italy	Como TV, Sportitalia
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Vélez Sársfield		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.85	3.3	Watch
	2.7	2.85	2.8
	2.35	2.88	3.4	Watch
	2.41	2.92	3.63
	2.43	2.93	3.18	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.8)	2.89 ↓ (2.9)	3.17 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vélez Sársfield
37.8%

Draw
32.6%

Rosario Central
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

32.1%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

31.8%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Rosario Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rosario Central could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vélez will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Vélez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 6. Quiros A. 3. Gomez E. 29. Aliendro R. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 20. Pizzini F. 22. Lanzini M. 8. Galvan T. 9. Braian Romero	1. Broun J. (G) 32. Coronel E. 6. Komar J. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 3. Sandez A. 5. Ibarra F. 10. Malcorra I. 16. Gimenez E. 11. Di Maria A. 21. Lopez S. 9. Veliz A.
Substitutes
50. Andrada T. 35. Arias M. 42. Garzon L. (G) 15. Godoy D. 16. Magallan L. 23. Monzon F. 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M. 40. Silvero T. 10. Valdes D. 33. Vazquez K. A. 17. Veron A.	34. Beltran S. 26. Cantizano G. 33. Elordi J. M. 18. Lo Celso F. 44. Modica A. 31. Navarro F. 46. Ovando I. 39. Oviedo F. 47. Raffin L. 35. Salteno T. 20. Werner A. (G)
Coaches
Barros Schelotto G.	Holan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Veliz A. ⚽, Sandez A. (A),
23', Bouzat A. 🟨,
24', Braian Romero 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Lanzini M. ⚽,
65', Lopez S. 🟨,
66', Galvan T. ↓, Valdes D. ↑,
68', Malcorra I. 🟨,
69', Lopez S. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
71', Lanzini M. ↓, Arias M. ↑,
79', Di Maria A. ↓, Oviedo F. ↑,
84', Sandez A. 🟨,
84', Lagos A. 🟨,
87', Broun J. 🟨,
88', Braian Romero ↓, Godoy D. ↑,
90+2', Broun J. ↓, Werner A. ↑,
90+2', Veliz A. ↓, Modica A. ↑,
90+6', Gomez E. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 2, Malcorra I. (Pen),
90+12', Aliendro R. 🟥,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Vélez: Baeza C. (Yellow Cards) Carrizo M. (International duty) Cavanagh T. (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Gordon J. (Ankle Injury) Machuca I. (Suspended) Montero A. (International duty) Pellegrini M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Rosario: Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Gutierrez K. (Knee Injury) Modica A. (Muscle Injury) O'Connor T. (Knee Injury) Quintana C. (Broken ankle)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Vélez won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:16. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Vélez won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:4. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 33.24%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.10.25	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Atlético Tucumán	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.09.25	Racing - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.25	San Martín de San Juan - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWLWL
- Rosario Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.25	Rosario Central - River Plate	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Rosario Central	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	Rosario Central - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Rosario Central - Boca Juniors	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Rosario Central - Newells Old Boys	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.04.25	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	2:1
01.10.24	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	3:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
05.03.24	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	1:0
19.10.23	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.05.23	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	0:0
20.06.22	Vélez Sársfield - Rosario Central	2:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
15.02.22	Rosario Central - Vélez Sársfield	1:0

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