Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Acreana (Rio Branco)


	Independência		Altos

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	1.98
	4.05	3.25	1.8
	4.42	3.48	1.74
	8.34	5.11	1.31	Watch
	3.56	3.46	2
	2.5	3.4	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.38 ↑ (2.77)	3.63 ↑ (3)	1.88 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independência
22.1%

Draw
26.6%

Altos
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

30.2%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

30.7%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independência's form might have worsened.

Altos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Altos's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independência, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Altos than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Altos, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independência - Altos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Souza W. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Macario ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 1 - 2, Fininha ⚽,
56', 1 - 3, Sabral ⚽,
83', 1 - 4, Dieguinho ⚽,
87', 1 - 5, Mikael ⚽,
90+4', Cabeludo 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Independência may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Altos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Altos - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.16%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Independência - Manauara	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Águia de Marabá - Independência	4:1 ✺
12.07.25	Independência - Humaitá	0:1 ✺
05.07.25	Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Independência	1:2 ✺
29.06.25	Independência - Trem	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWT
- Associação Atlética de Altos
Brazilian Serie D
26.07.25	Altos - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	Tocantinópolis - Altos	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Altos - Parnahyba	4:2 ✺
06.07.25	Maracanã - Altos	1:3 ✺
28.06.25	Altos - Iguatu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWWW

Independência - Altos: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide