Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday


	Independência		Manauara

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.8	1.47
	6.25	3.80	1.45
	6.04	3.75	1.54
	6.04	3.86	1.51	Watch
	6	3.4	1.5
	6.53	3.50	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.06 ↑ (4.65)	3.69 ↑ (3.4)	1.5 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independência
14.9%

Draw
24.6%

Manauara
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

27%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

26.5%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Manauara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manauara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manauara than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manauara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independência - Manauara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Everson ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 0 - 2, Falcao ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Independência has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Manauara is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Independência has had a series of home games.

In this match, Manauara is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Independência won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Independência won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
14.06.26	Independência - Guaporé	2:2 ✺
24.05.26	Independência - Galvez	3:1 ✺
17.05.26	Independência - Araguaína	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Porto Velho - Independência	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Independência - Porto Velho	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWWLT
- Manauara EC
Brazilian Serie D
14.06.26	Manauara - São Raimundo PR	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	Monte Roraima - Manauara	0:1 ✺
24.05.26	Manauara - Manaus	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Nacional AM - Manauara	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Manauara - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
27.07.25	Independência - Manauara	2:1
19.04.25	Manauara - Independência	1:1

Independência - Manauara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide