Match Info

3. Liga - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Audi Sportpark (Ingolstadt) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kernchen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Germany	14:00	Magenta Sport
International	12:00	OneFootball TV


	Ingolstadt		Rot-Weiß Essen

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	1.9	Watch
	3.25	3.75	1.98
	3.2	3.6	1.98	Watch
	3.37	4.15	2.01
	3.29	4.01	1.94	Watch
	3.3	4.05	1.9
	3.27	3.72	1.88	Watch
	3.25	3.7	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.95)	3.81 ↓ (3.92)	1.95 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
28.2%

Draw
24.3%

Rot-Weiß Essen
47.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.5%

23.7%

44.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

23.6%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Rot-Weiß Essen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rot-Weiß Essen than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Ingolstadt - Rot Weiß Essen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Klein D. (G) 6. Antzoulas G. 14. Plath M. 15. Scholz J. 37. Kanuric B. 18. Bennetts K. 34. Frode L. 19. Rosenlocher L. 28. Velupillay N. 13. Lokotsch L. (C) 10. Kaygin D.	1. Golz J. (C) 15. Huning B. 23. Alonso J. 37. Hofmann J. 19. Bouebari F. 22. Sietan J. 11. Pesch N. 10. Obuz M. 17. Telalovic S. 18. Abiama D. 20. Janssen M.
Substitutes
8. Carlsen F. 4. Decker E. 20. Deichmann Y. 16. Ganda J. 5. Gul E. 1. Ponath M. (G) 41. Sapina V. 7. Seo Jong-min 17. Ugondu O.	32. Bazzoli L. 14. Brumme L. 26. Celebi E. 36. Gnagnon J. 2. Kostka M. 40. Malaeb R. 9. Potocnik J. 16. Reisig R. 35. Wienand F. (G)
Coaches
Beierlorzer A.	Koschinat U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Frode L. 🟨,
33', Bennetts K. ↓, Gul E. ↑,
33', Huning B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Velupillay N. ↓, Carlsen F. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Scholz J. ⚽, Kaygin D. (A),
55', Bouebari F. 🟨,
59', Obuz M. ↓, Brumme L. ↑,
59', Pesch N. ↓, Celebi E. ↑,
65', Kanuric B. ↓, Ganda J. ↑,
65', Kaygin D. ↓, Sapina V. ↑,
73', Bouebari F. ↓, Potocnik J. ↑,
73', Hofmann J. ↓, Kostka M. ↑,
79', Abiama D. 🟨,
81', Lokotsch L. ↓, Ugondu O. ↑,
84', Abiama D. ↓, Malaeb R. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 13th and 3rd in the Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ingolstadt won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Ingolstadt (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Rot-Weiß Essen is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rot-Weiß Essen could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Rot-Weiß Essen holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Ingolstadt has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:18 (averaging 1.1:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ingolstadt against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:6 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	RW Essen	11	6	3	2	19:13	6	21
6	Ingolstadt	11	5	2	4	15:16	-1	17

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

RW Essen: 11.07% Ingolstadt: 3.08%

Last Results with these Odds

Ingolstadt - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.47%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Rot-Weiß Essen - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.85%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
14.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	0:3 ✺
11.10.26	Ingolstadt - Wehen Wiesbaden	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Nürnberg - Ingolstadt	3:1 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Viktoria Köln - Ingolstadt	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Ingolstadt - Hoffenheim II	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL
- Rot-Weiß Essen
German 3 Bundesliga
13.10.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Fortuna Köln	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Preußen Münster - Rot-Weiß Essen	3:3 ✺
20.09.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Hansa Rostock	1:1 ✺
16.09.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Würzburger Kickers	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
11.04.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ingolstadt	4:1
08.11.25	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:2
22.02.25	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ingolstadt	2:0
21.09.24	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:2
28.04.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ingolstadt	4:0
25.11.23	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1
25.02.23	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:1

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