Match Info

3. Liga - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Audi Sportpark (Ingolstadt)

Referee: Weller F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Germany	BR Fernsehen, DFB Play, Magenta Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 6
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Ingolstadt		Schweinfurt

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.33	4.5	Watch
	1.55	4.33	5
	1.6	4.25	4.55
	1.56	4.59	5.19
	2.35	3.91	2.53	Watch
	1.62	4.34	4.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.58)	4.29 ↑ (3.98)	4.38 ↓ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
55.8%

Draw
22.3%

Schweinfurt
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

23%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

17.6%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Schweinfurt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ingolstadt that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schweinfurt than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Ingolstadt - Schweinfurt Predictions

Users Predictions: Ingolstadt will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ponath M. (G) 20. Deichmann Y. 32. Lorenz S. 15. Scholz J. 3. Decker E. 34. Frode L. (C) 22. Costly M. 17. Besuschkow M. 8. Carlsen F. 7. Sturm Y. 9. Borchers M.	1. Stahl T. (G) 21. Bausenwein L. 8. Meissner T. (C) 6. Zeller L. 23. Kratschmer P. 30. Geis J. 3. Angleberger D. 25. Wintzheimer M. 11. Celebi E. 33. Endres J. 10. Dellinger M.
Substitutes
11. Christensen F. 24. Christensen G. 25. Eisele K. (G) 5. Gul E. 29. Kugel J. 23. Maljojoki J. 42. Ozden M. 39. Ozturk B. 14. Plath M.	13. Bohnlein K. 15. Fery K. 5. Grimbs N. 28. Luque-Notaro F. 37. Muller S. 19. Piwernetz N. 17. Tranziska J. 18. Trslic L. 40. Weisbacker M. (G)
Coaches
Wittmann S.	Kleinhenz V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', Deichmann Y. 🟨,
3', 0 - 1, Ponath M. (Own goal),
35', 1 - 1, Sturm Y. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
38', 2 - 1, Deichmann Y. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
45+2', Zeller L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 2 - 2, Wintzheimer M. ⚽, Geis J. (A),
55', Borchers M. ↓, Christensen F. ↑,
61', Decker E. ↓, Plath M. ↑,
61', Sturm Y. ↓, Christensen G. ↑,
69', Dellinger M. ↓, Tranziska J. ↑,
70', Celebi E. 🟥,
73', Endres J. ↓, Piwernetz N. ↑,
73', Wintzheimer M. ↓, Bohnlein K. ↑,
74', Lorenz S. 🟨,
85', Frode L. ↓, Kugel J. ↑,
85', Carlsen F. ↓, Gul E. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Bohnlein K. ⚽,
89', Bausenwein L. ↓, Trslic L. ↑,
90+6', Gul E. 🟨,
90+9', Gul E. 🟨,
90+10', Geis J. 🟨,

Preview

Ingolstadt has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Schweinfurt is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Ingolstadt is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Energie Cottbus - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Ingolstadt - Hansa Rostock	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	VfB Stuttgart II - Ingolstadt	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Ingolstadt - Jahn Regensburg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Ingolstadt - Heidenheim	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TTLTL
- 1. FC Schweinfurt 05
German 3 Bundesliga
31.08.25	Schweinfurt - Wehen Wiesbaden	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Jahn Regensburg - Schweinfurt	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Schweinfurt - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:4 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
08.08.25	Schweinfurt - Energie Cottbus	0:2 ✺
03.08.25	Viktoria Köln - Schweinfurt	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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