Match Info

3. Liga - Round 38

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Audi Sportpark (Ingolstadt) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ballweg C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	13:30	SportKlub 6
Germany	13:30	Magenta Sport
Slovenia	13:30	SportKlub 5
International	11:30	Onefootball


	Ingolstadt		Waldhof Mannheim

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.9	3.2	Watch
	1.95	3.95	3.15	Watch
	1.95	4.22	3.48
	1.91	4.03	3.35	Watch
	1.85	3.8	3.25
	1.86	3.88	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.33)	3.96 ↑ (3.41)	3.29 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
48.7%

Draw
23.3%

Waldhof Mannheim
28.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.8%

27.2%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

26.2%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ingolstadt's performance.

Waldhof Mannheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ingolstadt that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Waldhof Mannheim than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Ingolstadt - Waldhof Mannheim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Klein D. (G) 6. Antzoulas G. 32. Lorenz S. (C) 15. Scholz J. 2. Hoppe M. 17. Besuschkow M. 8. Carlsen F. 14. Plath M. 5. Gul E. 7. Sturm Y. 22. Costly M.	1. Nijhuis T. (G) 25. Ba S. 6. Hoffmann N. 4. Sechelmann T. 17. Abifade S. 22. Sietan J. 8. Thalhammer M. 12. Thill V. 29. Muteba NTumba N. X. 35. Mendes D. 13. Boyd T.
Substitutes
49. Bagaric T. 11. Christensen F. 30. Drakulic O. 25. Eisele K. (G) 34. Frode L. 44. Kehrer E. 29. Kugel J. 48. Lakatos N. 23. Maljojoki J. 39. Ozturk B.	7. Bierschenk L. 10. Ferati A. 14. Iwe E. 41. Kryeziu D. 38. Masca 16. Niemann J. (G) 5. Ogbemudia O. 21. Rieckmann J.
Coaches
Wittmann S.	Holtz L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Sturm Y. ⚽, Carlsen F. (A),
30', 2 - 0, Costly M. ⚽, Gul E. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Muteba NTumba N. X. ↓, Bierschenk L. ↑,
46', Sietan J. ↓, Ferati A. ↑,
46', Hoffmann N. ↓, Ogbemudia O. ↑,
51', 3 - 0, Gul E. ⚽,
57', 3 - 1, Boyd T. ⚽, Ferati A. (A),
65', 4 - 1, Sturm Y. ⚽, Carlsen F. (A),
66', Mendes D. ↓, Masca ↑,
70', Costly M. ↓, Kugel J. ↑,
70', Besuschkow M. ↓, Frode L. ↑,
76', Boyd T. 🟨,
78', Thill V. ↓, Rieckmann J. ↑,
80', Frode L. 🟥,
81', 5 - 1, Sturm Y. ⚽,
86', Lorenz S. ↓, Maljojoki J. ↑,
89', Sturm Y. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
89', Gul E. ↓, Ozturk B. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ingolstadt won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ingolstadt will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Ingolstadt won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ingolstadt won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Ingolstadt	11	5	2	4	15:16	-1	17
7	Mannheim	11	5	1	5	20:17	3	16

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

Ingolstadt: 3.08% Mannheim: 1.31%

Last Results with these Odds

Ingolstadt - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.85%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
09.05.26	1860 München - Ingolstadt	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	3:5 ✺
25.04.26	Hoffenheim II - Ingolstadt	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Ingolstadt - Osnabrück	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Ingolstadt	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWLL
- Waldhof Mannheim
German 3 Bundesliga
09.05.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Jahn Regensburg	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Saarbrücken - Waldhof Mannheim	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Schweinfurt	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Waldhof Mannheim	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Duisburg	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	2:2
19.01.25	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	0:0
04.08.24	Ingolstadt - Waldhof Mannheim	2:1
05.05.24	Ingolstadt - Waldhof Mannheim	1:1
02.12.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	1:1
15.03.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	3:2
10.09.22	Ingolstadt - Waldhof Mannheim	1:0

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