Match Info

Championship - Round 2

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Portman Road (Ipswich)

Referee: Madley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ipswich Town		Southampton

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	3.9	Watch
	2.1	3.5	3.3
	1.99	3.57	3.72	Watch
	1.9	3.73	4.12
	1.34	4.98	8.75	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.25
	2.04	3.58	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.02)	3.77 ↑ (3.53)	4.37 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ipswich Town
51.4%

Draw
26.1%

Southampton
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

26.8%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.9%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	25%	8.3%

Ipswich Town - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ipswich will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). S`hampton will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ipswich: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ipswich (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - S`hampton (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - S`hampton (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ipswich (votes: 1 - 20%). S`hampton (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Palmer A. (G) 18. Johnson B. 26. O'Shea D. (C) 24. Greaves J. 3. Davis L. 5. Matusiwa A. 14. Taylor J. 11. Philogene J. 23. Szmodics S. 47. Clarke J. 9. Hirst G.	31. Bazunu G. (G) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Stephens J. (C) 17. Quarshie J. 26. Fraser R. 4. Downes F. 24. Charles S. 34. Welington 18. Fernandes M. 46. Robinson J. 9. Armstrong A.
Substitutes
36. Ayinde L. 12. Cajuste J. 10. Chaplin C. 30. Humphreys C. 4. Kipre C. 21. Ogbene C. 28. Walton C. (G) 6. Woolfenden L. 15. Young A.	19. Archer C. 22. Brereton Diaz B. 33. Dibling T. 12. Edwards R. 3. Manning R. 27. Matsuki K. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 15. Wood N.
Coaches
McKenna K.	Still W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Harwood-Bellis T. (Own goal),
29', 1 - 1, Robinson J. ⚽, Fraser R. (A),
41', Welington 🟨,
42', Taylor J. 🟨,
45+2', Matusiwa A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Welington ↓, Manning R. ↑,
69', Robinson J. ↓, Matsuki K. ↑,
69', Fernandes M. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
71', Philogene J. ↓, Chaplin C. ↑,
71', Clarke J. ↓, Ogbene C. ↑,
71', Taylor J. ↓, Cajuste J. ↑,
83', Armstrong A. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
83', Fraser R. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
86', Johnson B. ↓, Young A. ↑,
86', Matusiwa A. ↓, Humphreys C. ↑,
90+5', Charles S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ipswich won 2.

Ipswich is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

S`hampton has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Ipswich has had a series of away games.

Ipswich could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Ipswich: Akpom Ch. (Inactive) Burns W. (Knee Injury) Townsend C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ipswich: Philogene J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Dibling T. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ipswich won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ipswich won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ipswich Town
English League Cup
12.08.25	Bromley - Ipswich Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
08.08.25	Birmingham City - Ipswich Town	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Auxerre - Ipswich Town	0:3 ✺
29.07.25	Ipswich Town - Charlton Athletic	2:1 ✺
25.07.25	Aberdeen - Ipswich Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTWWW
- Southampton FC
English League Cup
12.08.25	Northampton Town - Southampton	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
09.08.25	Southampton - Wrexham	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Southampton - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
26.07.25	Espanyol - Southampton	2:1 ✺
23.07.25	Castellón - Southampton	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2
21.09.24	Southampton - Ipswich Town	1:1
English League Championship
01.04.24	Ipswich Town - Southampton	3:2
19.09.23	Southampton - Ipswich Town	0:1
English FA Cup
14.01.15	Ipswich Town - Southampton	0:1
04.01.15	Southampton - Ipswich Town	1:1
English League Championship
06.03.12	Southampton - Ipswich Town	N/A

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