Match Info

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 2 - Round 25

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Iskra Smolensk		Zvezda St. Petersburg

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.55)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	2.5 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 12.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Iskra Smolensk
35.6%

Draw
28.7%

Zvezda St. Petersburg
35.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.5%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

27.9%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Iskra Smolensk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Zvezda St. Petersburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iskra Smolensk than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zvezda St. Petersburg than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Iskra Smolensk - Zvezda St. Petersburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Sokolov V. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Sokolov V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 2 - 1, Aliev N. ⚽,
81', 3 - 1, Radzevsky A. ⚽,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 13th and 12th).

Iskra has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Zvezda SP is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Zvezda SP could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Zvezda SP has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Iskra has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Zvezda St. Peterburg	27	7	9	11	33:47	-14	30
14	Iskra Smolensk	27	6	7	14	26:52	-26	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Iskra Smolensk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
20.09.26	Torpedo Vladimir - Iskra Smolensk	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Dynamo Vologda - Iskra Smolensk	2:3 ✺
29.08.26	Iskra Smolensk - Baltika 2	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Yenisey 2 - Iskra Smolensk	4:0 ✺
15.08.26	Iskra Smolensk - Chertanovo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 WWTLL
- Zvezda St. Petersburg
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
18.09.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Murom	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Torpedo Vladimir	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Dynamo Vologda	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
12.08.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Luki-Energiya	1:2 ✺
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
02.08.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Yenisey 2	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
06.06.26	Zvezda St. Petersburg - Iskra Smolensk	1:1

Iskra Smolensk - Zvezda St. Petersburg