Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA DO NORDESTE - ROUND 6

Date: 21 March 2024, Thursday


	Itabaiana		Maranhão

	1	X	2
	2.85	3	2.37
	3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.36	3.1	2.33
	3.36	2.85	2.33
	3	3	2.25
	3.14	3.08	2.21	Watch
	3	3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.73)	3.02 ↑ (2.84)	2.29 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabaiana
29.6%

Draw
30.4%

Maranhão
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

32.1%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

33.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Itabaiana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Maranhão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Maranhão's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabaiana than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Itabaiana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maranhão than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maranhão, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Itabaiana - Maranhão Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Itabaiana will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Maranhão will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson (G) 23. Bruno Sena 2. Chiquinho Alagoano (C) 25. da Conceicao Araujo C. 3. Gabriel Caran 7. Leo Carvalho 10. Marcelinho 19. Schutz 6. Thiago Papel 8. Vitao 16. Wendel Barros	1. Moises (G) 18. Adeilson Maranhao 11. Alison 16. Andre Radija 5. Cavi 2. Franklin 4. Maicon (C) 3. Pedro Gustavo 7. Ronald Camarao 8. Vander 10. Vinicius Barata
Substitutes
14. Douglas Dias 5. Duda 9. Joao Vitor 17. Jupi 11. Matheus 1. Matheus Pellegrini (G) 15. Matheus Prado 24. Montanhas (G) 20. Nenem 21. Neto Sergipano 13. Pedro Silva	17. Capote 6. Hugo Leonardo 23. Jean (G) 20. Kleberson 15. Pedro Guilherme 19. Rafael Teixeira 14. Sousa D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Vinicius Barata ⚽,
15', Bruno Sena 🟨,
16', 0 - 2, Andre Radija ⚽,
31', Vitao 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
57', da Conceicao Araujo C. ↓, Matheus ↑,
57', Andre Radija ↓, Hugo Leonardo ↑,
63', Moises 🟨,
65', Alison ↓, Rafael Teixeira ↑,
69', Marcelinho ↓, Jupi ↑,
69', Chiquinho Alagoano ↓, Douglas Dias ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Wendel Barros ⚽,
77', 1 - 3, Maicon ⚽,
81', 1 - 4, Rafael Teixeira ⚽,
82', Vitao ↓, Matheus Prado ↑,
84', 2 - 4, Joao Vitor ⚽,
85', Wendel Barros ↓, Nenem ↑,
90+2', Leo Carvalho 🟨,
90+8', Rafael Teixeira 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 4, Matheus Prado ⚽,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 8 and 7).

Recent matches Itabaiana is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Maranhão is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Maranhão could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Itabaiana have a series of guest games.

Recently Maranhão have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AO de Itabaiana
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
16.03.24	Dorense - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
13.03.24	Dorense - Itabaiana	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Itabaiana - Lagarto	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.24	Vitória Salvador - Itabaiana	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
03.03.24	Confiança - Itabaiana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TTTLW
- Maranhão AC
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
16.03.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Maranhão	2:2 ✺
10.03.24	Maranhão - Cordino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.03.24	Maranhão - Treze	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Maranhense
02.03.24	Maranhão - Pinheiro	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Maranhão - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWWL

Itabaiana - Maranhão: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide