Match Info

Serie D - Round 14

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal Castor Cifuentes (Minas Gerais)


	Itabirito		Atlético Monte Azul

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	1.85	3.05	4.05
	1.88	3.15	4.2
	1.99	3.24	3.70	Watch
	1.82	3.08	4.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 (1.87)	3.12 ↑ (3.12)	4.06 ↑ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Itabirito
48.5%

Draw
29.1%

Atlético Monte Azul
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

29.1%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

29.6%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Itabirito have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Atlético Monte Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Itabirito than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Monte Azul than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Itabirito - Atlético Monte Azul Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 1 - 0, Victor Sallinas ⚽,
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,
81', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 7).

Itabirito has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Monte Azul has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Monte Azul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Monte Azul has had a series of home games.

In this match, Itabirito is seen as the favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Itabirito won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Itabirito FC
Brazilian Serie D
19.07.25	Cianorte - Itabirito	3:1 ✺
12.07.25	Itabirito - Goiatuba	0:1 ✺
06.07.25	Itabirito - Operário MS	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Uberlândia - Itabirito	4:0 ✺
15.06.25	Itabirito - Internacional de Limeira	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLTLT
- Atlético Monte Azul
Brazilian Copa Paulista
23.07.25	Araçatuba - Atlético Monte Azul	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
19.07.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Operário MS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
16.07.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Grêmio Prudente	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
12.07.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Internacional de Limeira	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
09.07.25	Atlético Monte Azul - EC Noroeste	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
19.04.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Itabirito	0:1

Itabirito - Atlético Monte Azul: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide