Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 18

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Jõhvi Phoenix		Tartu Kalev

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.60	3.80
	1.64	4.50	3.60
	1.57	5.02	3.97
	1.65	5.02	3.49	Watch
	1.49	4.95	3.90
	1.69	4.60	3.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (2.7)	4.78 ↑ (3.95)	3.74 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jõhvi Phoenix
56.7%

Draw
19%

Tartu Kalev
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

22.8%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

22.5%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jõhvi Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jõhvi Phoenix's performance.

Tartu Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tartu Kalev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jõhvi Phoenix than the current prediction. (-23.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jõhvi Phoenix that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (+20%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tartu Kalev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Stoyanov B. ⚽,
6', 2 - 0, Tikhomirov A. ⚽,
15', 3 - 0, Tsvibelberg G. ⚽,
30', 3 - 1, Villems M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 3 - 2, Villems M. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Tenno S. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 and 8 in the zone Esiliiga B (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jõhvi Phoenix won 3.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Jõhvi Phoenix might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Jõhvi Phoenix won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Jõhvi Phoenix won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 2.3:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71:68	3	54
6	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72:58	14	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jõhvi FC Phoenix
Estonian Esiliiga B
22.06.26	Levadia U19 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:0 ✺
18.06.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tallinna JK Legion	6:1 ✺
14.06.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tammeka U21	2:4 ✺
06.06.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Jõhvi Phoenix	4:2 ✺
28.05.26	Narva Trans U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLT
- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
21.06.26	Tabasalu - Tartu Kalev	3:1 ✺
18.06.26	Narva Trans U21 - Tartu Kalev	3:2 ✺
13.06.26	Tartu Kalev - Viljandi Tulevik	3:4 ✺
01.06.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Kalev	7:2 ✺
29.05.26	Tartu Kalev - Levadia U19	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
01.05.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	4:3
27.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	3:1
07.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	1:3
30.08.25	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:1
03.05.25	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:0
02.11.24	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:0
22.09.24	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	1:2

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