Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 17

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday


	Tabasalu		Tartu Kalev

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.3
	3.30	3.95	1.81
	2.68	4.01	2.02
	2.80	3.97	2.07	Watch
	2.2	3.9	2.38
	2.90	3.98	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (3.3)	3.97 ↑ (3.95)	2.09 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tabasalu
33.8%

Draw
22.9%

Tartu Kalev
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

22.8%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

22.5%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tabasalu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tabasalu's performance.

Tartu Kalev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tartu Kalev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tabasalu than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tabasalu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tartu Kalev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tabasalu - Tartu Kalev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Kruusla G. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 1, Salei S. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
80', 2 - 1, Anepaio A. ⚽,
87', 3 - 1, Anepaio A. ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 in the zone Esiliiga B (Relegation) and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tabasalu won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Tartu Kalev is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tabasalu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 2:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tabasalu won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:10. (average 2.5:5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72:58	14	47
8	Tabasalu	30	10	3	17	44:81	-37	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JK Tabasalu
Estonian Esiliiga B
18.06.26	Tammeka U21 - Tabasalu	1:3 ✺
13.06.26	Tabasalu - Tallinna Kalev U21	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Narva Trans U21 - Tabasalu	5:0 ✺
27.05.26	Tabasalu - Tallinna JK Legion	2:3 ✺
24.05.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Tabasalu	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLLL
- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
18.06.26	Narva Trans U21 - Tartu Kalev	3:2 ✺
13.06.26	Tartu Kalev - Viljandi Tulevik	3:4 ✺
01.06.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Tartu Kalev	7:2 ✺
29.05.26	Tartu Kalev - Levadia U19	2:0 ✺
24.05.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Tartu Kalev	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
21.03.26	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	4:0
23.10.25	Tabasalu - Tartu Kalev	3:9
09.08.25	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	1:1
19.06.25	Tabasalu - Tartu Kalev	2:1
08.03.25	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	1:0
Club Friendly
20.02.22	Tartu Kalev - Tabasalu	2:6

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