Match Info

Liga Premier Serie A - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Víctor Manuel Reyna (Tuxtla Gutiérrez)


	Jaguares de Chiapas		Dragones Toluca

	1	X	2
	1.26	4.93	9
	1.26	4.7	10.9
	1.59	3.7	5.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.62)	4.44 ↑ (3.68)	8.3 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Jaguares de Chiapas
67.9%

Draw
20.9%

Dragones Toluca
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

24.7%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

18.8%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaguares de Chiapas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Jaguares de Chiapas's performance.

Dragones Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dragones Toluca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaguares de Chiapas than the current prediction. (-25.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Jaguares de Chiapas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dragones Toluca than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dragones Toluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jaguares de Chiapas - Dragones Toluca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', 1 - 1, ⚽,
74', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 9 and 11)

Chiapas has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dragones Toluca is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Chiapas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chiapas is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jaguares de Chiapas
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
26.09.25	Cañoneros Marina - Jaguares de Chiapas	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Jaguares de Chiapas - Pioneros de Cancún	4:2 ✺
07.09.25	Montañeses - Jaguares de Chiapas	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Jaguares de Chiapas - Inter Playa Del Carmen	0:1 ✺
22.08.25	Héroes de Zaci - Jaguares de Chiapas	1:0
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLL
- Dragones Toluca
Mexican Liga Premier Serie A
27.09.25	Dragones Toluca - Montañeses	0:1 ✺
19.09.25	Inter Playa Del Carmen - Dragones Toluca	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Dragones Toluca - Héroes de Zaci	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Celaya - Dragones Toluca	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Racing de Veracruz - Dragones Toluca	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Upcoming Matches