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Current Win Probability
Juan Aurich 17.8%
Draw 23.1%
Unión Comercio 59.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.4%
25.3%
53.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.1%
24.9%
54%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juan Aurich has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Comercio's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juan Aurich than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-5.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Comercio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
30.8%
15.4%
53.8%
Juan Aurich - Unión Comercio Predictions
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Juan Aurich will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Unión Comercio will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for Unión Comercio: 26.7% – 80.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
Last 5 head-to-head matches Juan Aurich won 3.
Juan Aurich is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Unión Comercio is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Juan Aurich could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Unión Comercio is a favorite.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Juan Aurich won 9 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 29-23.
Including matches at home between the teams Juan Aurich won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 18-8.
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