Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 7

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre Garcia (Tarapoto)


	Unión Comercio		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.35	8.1
	1.3	4.41	8.02
	1.28	4.5	10.4
	1.45	4.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.45)	4.39 ↑ (4.1)	8.03 ↑ (5.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión Comercio
68%

Draw
20.7%

Santos
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

22.1%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

21.1%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Unión Comercio's performance.

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Unión Comercio - Santos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cordova M. (G)
18. Ayala J.
33. Cuero J.
13. Gonzalez N.
8. Marcos N.
3. Mena J.
4. Montoya C.
20. Morales G.
29. Perlaza V. (C)
26. Reategui M.
27. Villanueva C.
Substitutes
9. Arrieta J.
21. Cachique H. (G)
19. Delgado G.
39. Guerrero G.
15. Marines D.
16. Mendoza Cornejo F. G.
6. Ojeda A.
7. Vargas C.
17. Vargas D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Villanueva C. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Curiel M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gonzalez N. ↓, Arrieta J. ↑,
46', Morales G. ↓, Vargas D. ↑,
46', Montoya C. ↓, Delgado G. ↑,
63', Curiel M. ↓, Colon S. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Villanueva C. ⚽,
71', Velasco S. 🟨,
72', Villanueva C. ↓, Mendoza Cornejo F. G. ↑,
81', Marcos N. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
86', Arrieta J. 🟨,
90+3', Reategui M. 🟥,
90+3', Velasco S. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión Comercio won 3.

Unión Comercio has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Santos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Unión Comercio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Unión Comercio is the clear favorite.

We predict that Unión Comercio will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Unión Comercio won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión Comercio won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
24.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	San Marcos - Unión Comercio	1:4 ✺
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWWWW
- Santos de Nasca
Peruvian Liga 2
16.08.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:0 ✺
09.08.25	Santos - San Marcos	3:0 ✺
03.08.25	ADA Jaén - Santos	1:2 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Santos - Cantolao	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2
14.06.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	2:1
26.04.25	Unión Comercio - Santos	3:1
14.08.22	Santos - Unión Comercio	1:0
15.05.22	Unión Comercio - Santos	3:1
11.09.21	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:1
12.07.21	Unión Comercio - Santos	0:2

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