Match Info

Serie D - Round 2

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	União Carmolandense		Penedense

	1	X	2
	2.28	3	3.05
	2.76	2.97	2.59
	2.3	3.06	3.06	Watch
	2.51	3.25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.65)	3.07 ↓ (3.48)	2.86 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

União Carmolandense
37.6%

Draw
30.1%

Penedense
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.2%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

25.1%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

União Carmolandense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that União Carmolandense's form might have worsened.

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penedense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for União Carmolandense than the current prediction. (+20%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for União Carmolandense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penedense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

União Carmolandense - Penedense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Penedense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Penedense (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Penedense (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 1 - 0, Gabriel Vinicius ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 1, Thiaguinho ⚽,

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Penedense have a series of home games.

União Carmolandense will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- União Carmolandense
Brazilian Serie D
19.04.25	Lagarto - União Carmolandense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Tocantinense
05.04.25	União Carmolandense - Araguaína	1:0 penalties ✺
26.03.25	Tocantinópolis - União Carmolandense	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	União Carmolandense - Tocantinópolis	1:0 ✺
12.03.25	Tocantinópolis - União Carmolandense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWTWL
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Serie D
20.04.25	Penedense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.04.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
30.03.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense	1:0 penalties ✺
26.03.25	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Penedense - Coruripe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTLTW

União Carmolandense - Penedense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide