Match Info

JAPAN: YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Shiranami Stadium (Kagoshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!


	Kagoshima United		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.1	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	3.2	3.2	2.23	Watch
	2.84	3.27	2.46	Watch
	3.1	3.1	2.2
	3.38	3.34	2.13	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.7)	3.19 ↑ (3.05)	2.24 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kagoshima United
29.9%

Draw
28.9%

Montedio Yamagata
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

28.9%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

28.4%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kagoshima United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kagoshima United than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Kagoshima United - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kagoshima United will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Yamauchi K. (G) 26. Kawashima K. 29. Okazaki M. 23. Kojima R. 20. Endo M. 15. Ihori K. 8. Fujimura K. 36. Yonezawa R. 10. Take S. 73. Tanaka T. 13. Kondo Y.	16. Hasegawa K. (G) 6. Yamada T. 3. Kumamoto Y. 22. Shirowa H. 15. Kawai A. 20. Yoshio Kaina 17. Kato C. 9. Takahashi J. 42. Issaka Z. 11. Fujimoto Y. 14. Sakamoto K.
Substitutes
44. Aoki Y. 7. Chibu K. 11. Fukuda M. 31. Kumakura T. (G) 34. Maruyama T. 92. Nduka C. 9. Rodrigo Angelotti 3. Sugii H. 14. Yoshio K.	5. Abe T. 33. Chiba T. 55. Horikane S. 32. Kambayashi T. (G) 10. Kida R. 99. Mikeltadze B. 13. Nodake H. 23. Omori S. 21. Tanaka W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Fujimoto Y. ⚽,
22', Fujimura K. 🟨,
35', 0 - 2, Issaka Z. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Okazaki M. ↓, Chibu K. ↑,
46', Tanaka T. ↓, Yoshio K. ↑,
60', Kondo Y. ↓, Rodrigo Angelotti ↑,
72', Yoshio Kaina ↓, Tanaka W. ↑,
72', Fujimoto Y. ↓, Mikeltadze B. ↑,
77', Kojima R. ↓, Sugii H. ↑,
78', Kawai A. 🟨,
82', Sakamoto K. ↓, Kida R. ↑,
84', Ihori K. ↓, Fukuda M. ↑,
90', Yamada T. ↓, Nodake H. ↑,
90', Takahashi J. ↓, Abe T. ↑,

Preview

Kagoshima United is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Montedio Yamagata is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Kagoshima United won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.5:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Kagoshima United won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kagoshima United
Japan J3 League
23.03.25	Kagoshima United - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Kochi United - Kagoshima United	2:2 ✺
08.03.25	Kagoshima United - Thespakusatsu Gunma	5:2 ✺
01.03.25	Sagamihara - Kagoshima United	0:2 ✺
23.02.25	Kagoshima United - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTWWL
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Montedio Yamagata - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Montedio Yamagata	1:3 ✺
09.03.25	Montedio Yamagata - Blaublitz Akita	4:2 ✺
01.03.25	JEF United Chiba - Montedio Yamagata	3:2 ✺
23.02.25	Mito HollyHock - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
15.06.24	Kagoshima United - Montedio Yamagata	2:1
07.04.24	Montedio Yamagata - Kagoshima United	2:0
15.09.19	Kagoshima United - Montedio Yamagata	0:3
02.06.19	Montedio Yamagata - Kagoshima United	1:0

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