Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Almaty Central Stadium (Almaty) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	20:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	18:45	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Brazil	13:45	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 4
Canada	12:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	13:45	Disney+
China	00:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	11:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	18:45	Viaplay
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	20:45	Silk Sport 1
Germany	18:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	00:45	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	18:45	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	16:45	SÝN Sport 2
India	22:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	23:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Kazakhstan	22:45	Qazsport
Kenya	19:45	Gotv
Laos	23:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	10:45	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	05:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	17:45	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play
Pakistan	21:45	Tapmad
Peru	11:45	Disney+
Philippines	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	19:45	Okko Sport
Singapore	00:45	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	18:45	Voyo
South Africa	18:45	SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	01:45	SPOTV Now
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Suriname	13:45	ATV Suriname
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	23:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	19:45	Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	17:45	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 3, Virgin Media More
Uruguay	13:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:45	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	23:45	ON Plus


	Kairat		Paphos

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.4
	3.05	3.25	2.52
	3.11	3.25	2.5
	3.00	3.24	2.37	Watch
	3.05	3.33	2.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.72)	3.25 ↓ (3.32)	2.47 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kairat
31.6%

Draw
29.5%

Paphos
38.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.8%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

29.9%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Paphos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	25.6%	56.4%

Kairat - Paphos Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Kairat will win (votes: 7 - 17.9%). Paphos will win (votes: 22 - 56.4%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 25.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paphos: 40.8% – 72%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Kairat (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Paphos (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Paphos (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Kairat (1.79) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Kairat (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Paphos (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Anarbekov T. (G) 20. Tapalov E. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 80. Sorokin E. 3. Mata L. 15. Arad O. 18. Glazer D. 24. Mrynskiy A. 7. Jorginho 55. Gromyko V. 9. Satpaev D.	93. Michail N. (G) 7. Bruno 23. Luckassen D. 4. David Luiz 2. Pileas K. 88. Pepe (C) 26. Sunjic I. 8. Quina D. 30. Dragomir V. 17. Orsic M. 77. Correia J.
Substitutes
17. Baybek O. 82. Kalmyrza S. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 5. Kurgin L. 99. Ricardinho 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 33. Stanojev J. 87. Tuyakbaev A. 10. Zaria G. 1. Zarutskiy A. (G)	33. Anderson Silva 9. Bassouamina M. 10. Dimata L. 5. Goldar D. 1. Gorter J. (G) 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 82. Petrou P. (G) 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Urazbakhtin R.	Carcedo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Correia J. 🟥,
21', Satpaev D. 🟨,
40', Arad O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tapalov E. ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
61', Glazer D. ↓, Zaria G. ↑,
66', Quina D. ↓, Bassouamina M. ↑,
66', Pileas K. ↓, Goldar D. ↑,
79', Orsic M. ↓, Sema K. ↑,
79', Pepe ↓, Dimata L. ↑,
80', Sunjic I. 🟨,
82', Tuyakbaev A. 🟨,
89', Gromyko V. ↓, Kasabulat D. ↑,
90', Bruno ↓, Langa B. ↑,
90+2', Arad O. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Kairat has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paphos is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Paphos has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Kairat: Edmilson Santos (Inactive) Elder Santana (Knee Injury) Joao Paulo (Knee Injury) Zarutskiy A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Inactive)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Paphos - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 36.01%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
17.10.25	Kyzylzhar - Kairat	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Kairat - Zhetysu	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Kairat - Real Madrid	0:5 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
22.09.25	Kairat - Zhenis	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Sporting Lisbon - Kairat	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLWL
- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
17.10.25	Paphos - Ethnikos Achna	4:0 ✺
05.10.25	AEK Larnaca - Paphos	2:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Paphos - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
Cypriot First Division
27.09.25	Paphos - Olympiacos Nicosia	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	Paphos - Enosis Neon Paralimni	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWW

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