Match Info

I Lyga - Round 18

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday


	Kauno Žalgiris 2		Atmosfera Mažeikiai

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.90	1.52
	5.15	3.9	1.52
	5.41	3.98	1.49
	5.32	3.98	1.53	Watch
	5.45	3.95	1.45
	4.92	4.04	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.12)	3.96 ↑ (3.55)	1.52 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kauno Žalgiris 2
17.4%

Draw
22.9%

Atmosfera Mažeikiai
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22%

25.5%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

25.2%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kauno Žalgiris 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Atmosfera Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atmosfera Mažeikiai's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kauno Žalgiris 2 than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atmosfera Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atmosfera Mažeikiai, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
68', 1 - 1, ⚽,
78', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kauno Žalgiris 2 won 0.

Kauno Žalgiris 2 is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Atmosfera has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atmosfera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atmosfera is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Kauno Žalgiris 2 won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:13. (average 0.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kauno Žalgiris 2 won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37:33	4	30
12	Kauno Zalgiris 2	25	7	1	17	23:43	-20	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kauno Žalgiris 2
Lithuanian Division 2
24.07.26	Tauras Tauragė - Kauno Žalgiris 2	4:2 ✺
19.07.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Babrungas Plungė	0:2 ✺
28.06.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - BFA Vilnius	0:1 ✺
24.06.26	Babrungas Plungė - Kauno Žalgiris 2	0:0 ✺
18.06.26	Neptūnas - Kauno Žalgiris 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLTL
- Atmosfera Mažeikiai
Lithuanian Division 2
25.07.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Hegelmann Litauen 2	4:1 ✺
01.07.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BE1 NFA Kaunas	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Ekranas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:2 ✺
20.06.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Minija Kretinga	0:1 ✺
12.06.26	Jonava - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
18.03.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Kauno Žalgiris 2	2:1
22.07.25	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:3
07.03.25	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Kauno Žalgiris 2	1:0
28.09.24	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1
11.05.24	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Kauno Žalgiris 2	1:0
03.08.21	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	0:3
19.09.20	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	1:1

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