Match Info

Super Lig - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Kadir Has Stadium (Kayseri)

Referee: Ozturk U. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1


	Kayserispor		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.25	2.1	Watch
	2.96	3.43	2.3
	3.12	3.6	2.36
	7.31	3.92	1.49	Watch
	3.01	3.58	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↑ (2.93)	3.56 ↑ (3.39)	2.11 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kayserispor
25.6%

Draw
27.7%

Samsunspor
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

27.7%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27.5%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kayserispor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kayserispor's form might have worsened.

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samsunspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kayserispor than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kayserispor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samsunspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Kayserispor - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samsunspor: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Samsunspor (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bayazit B. (G) 28. Civelek R. 4. Denswil S. 54. Kocaman A. 23. Carole L. 15. Ait Bennasser Y. 20. Mane C. 33. Soyalp F. 8. Benes L. 7. Cardoso M. (C) 22. Tuci I.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 29. Makoumbou A. 70. Coulibaly T. 21. Holse C. 10. Ntcham O. 7. Musaba A. 9. Marius
Substitutes
3. Burak A. 17. Kapacak B. 77. Korkmaz N. 10. Mendes J. 9. Onugkha G. 30. Opoku A. 16. Ozbek E. 1. Piri O. (G) 99. Sariarslan T. 24. Tokoz D.	24. Borevkovic T. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 11. Kilinc E. 2. Mendes J. 19. Ndiaye C. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 77. Sousa A. 22. Yaldir P. 5. Yuksel C.
Coaches
Djalovic R.	Reis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Carole L. 🟨,
25', Musaba A. 🟨,
30', Coulibaly T. 🟨,
39', Tuci I. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Holse C. ⚽, Tomasson L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Civelek R. ↓, Kapacak B. ↑,
48', Ntcham O. ↓, Yuksel C. ↑,
50', Tomasson L. 🟨,
60', Mane C. ↓, Opoku A. ↑,
60', Tuci I. ↓, Onugkha G. ↑,
62', Marius ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
62', Coulibaly T. ↓, Kilinc E. ↑,
64', 0 - 2, Holse C. ⚽,
65', Ait Bennasser Y. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
68', Yavru Z. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
68', Holse C. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
72', 0 - 3, Van Drongelen R. ⚽,
75', Soyalp F. ↓, Tokoz D. ↑,
83', 1 - 3, Onugkha G. ⚽, Kapacak B. (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kayserispor won 1.

Kayserispor is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Samsunspor is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Kayserispor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Kayserispor: Ackah Y. (Inactive) Ait Bennasser Y. (Inactive) Hosseini M. (Health problems) Karimi A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Aydogdu S. (Injury) Ceesay E. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Kilinc E. (Broken Hand) Sousa A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Kayserispor: Jung G. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Kayserispor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kayserispor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kayserispor
Turkish Super League
03.10.25	Trabzonspor - Kayserispor	4:0 ✺
28.09.25	Kayserispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:1 ✺
24.09.25	Kayserispor - Beşiktaş	0:4 ✺
20.09.25	Antalyaspor - Kayserispor	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Kayserispor - Göztepe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLTT
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
05.10.25	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
27.09.25	Gaziantep - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Samsunspor - Kasımpaşa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
01.06.25	Samsunspor - Kayserispor	2:1
11.01.25	Kayserispor - Samsunspor	0:1
25.01.24	Samsunspor - Kayserispor	2:0
27.08.23	Kayserispor - Samsunspor	2:1
Turkish First League
21.02.15	Samsunspor - Kayserispor	2:0
28.09.14	Kayserispor - Samsunspor	1:1
Turkish Super League
18.03.12	Kayserispor - Samsunspor	2:0

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