Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Legia Warsaw		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.75
	2.08	3.25	3.55
	2.1	3.29	3.83
	3.65	3.64	1.94	Watch
	2.06	3.32	3.77
	2.05	3.41	3.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.11)	3.37 ↓ (3.39)	3.39 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
42%

Draw
29.1%

Samsunspor
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

27.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

27.5%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	13.9%	5.6%

Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Samsunspor (1.72) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Samsunspor (2.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Samsunspor (2.32) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (29 of 36 users predict this - 80.56%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.63% – 93.49%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Samsunspor (votes: 7 - 30.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 4. Burch M. 12. Pankov R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 19. Vinagre R. 82. Urbanski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 53. Urbanski W. 11. Chodyna K. 14. Colak A. 30. Stojanovic P.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 5. Yuksel C. 70. Coulibaly T. 10. Ntcham O. 21. Holse C. 7. Musaba A. 9. Marius
Substitutes
21. Bichakhchyan V. 22. Elitim J. 3. Kapuadi S. 67. Kapustka B. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 77. Krasniqi E. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 44. Szymanski D. 99. Weisshaupt N. 7. Wszolek P. 20. Zewlakow J.	25. Atoen F. 24. Borevkovic T. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 29. Makoumbou A. 2. Mendes J. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 22. Yaldir P.
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Reis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Musaba A. ⚽, Marius (A),
20', Yuksel C. 🟨,
24', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Coulibaly T. ↓, Cift Y. E. ↑,
63', Yuksel C. ↓, Makoumbou A. ↑,
63', Stojanovic P. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
63', Urbanski K. ↓, Elitim J. ↑,
63', Colak A. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
76', Urbanski W. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
82', Chodyna K. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
84', Ntcham O. ↓, Borevkovic T. ↑,
84', Musaba A. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
90+1', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟨,
90+1', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
90+2', Yavru Z. ↓, Gonul S. ↑,
90+3', Pankov R. 🟨,
90+3', Borevkovic T. 🟨,
90+6', Cift Y. E. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Samsunspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Legia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Goncalves C. (Ankle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Aydin E. (Inactive) Aydogdu S. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Kilinc E. (Injury) Ndiaye C. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Inactive) Ustun E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Legia: Piatkowski K. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.33%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
24.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTTWL
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
27.09.25	Gaziantep - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Samsunspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:2 ✺
17.09.25	Samsunspor - Kasımpaşa	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Samsunspor - Antalyaspor	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Trabzonspor - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWTLT

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