Match Info

1. Lig - Round 26

Date: 18 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Aktepe Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Tonusluoglu D. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Keçiörengücü		Erzurumspor

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.4	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.4
	2.81	3.15	2.38	Watch
	2.97	3.3	2.46
	2.89	3.26	2.4	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.38
	2.83	3.1	2.36	Watch
	2.83	3.25	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.64)	3.21 ↑ (3.17)	2.39 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Keçiörengücü
32.8%

Draw
28.7%

Erzurumspor
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

28.8%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

28.5%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keçiörengücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Keçiörengücü will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Erzurumspor will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Erzurumspor (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Satilmis E. (G) 10. Bulut H. 5. Caliskan O. 15. Wellington Nascimento 11. Dere A. 36. Karaogul I. 14. Akdag I. (C) 7. Roshi O. 78. Fernandes J. 21. Ezeh F. 55. Diouf M.	31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 3. Kirtay Y. 15. Giorbelidze G. 6. Baiye B. 77. Keser B. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 99. Fettahoglu M. 10. Tozlu E. (C)
Substitutes
9. Akman A. 22. Ayan H. 17. Bilgic H. 4. Celik A. 70. Diaby O. 73. Lus S. 23. Mexer 88. Ozer A. (G) 8. Rroca E. 28. Yilmaz E.	11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 23. Bayrak C. 19. Fernando Andrade 16. Kabak A. 65. Rodriguez M. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A. 9. Yener H. 22. Yumlu M.
Coaches
Kosukavak Y.	Ozbalta S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Bulut H. ⚽, Roshi O. (A),
32', Baiye B. 🟨,
42', Bulut H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Keser B. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
59', Akdag I. 🟨,
60', Ovacikli O. 🟨,
67', Crociata G. ↓, Kabak A. ↑,
67', Akgun S. ↓, Ulgen A. ↑,
75', Fernandes J. 🟨,
76', Giorbelidze G. ↓, Fernando Andrade ↑,
76', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
77', Fernandes J. ↓, Ayan H. ↑,
77', Ezeh F. ↓, Mexer ↑,
86', Bulut H. ↓, Bilgic H. ↑,
86', Diouf M. ↓, Akman A. ↑,
86', Roshi O. ↓, Diaby O. ↑,
90', Orbanic M. 🟨,
90+4', Kosukavak Y. 🟥,
90+6', 1 - 1, Tozlu E. (Penalty Awarded),
90+9', 1 - 2, Sylla C. ⚽, Rodriguez M. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 1.

Recent performances by Keçiörengücü have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Erzurumspor is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Erzurumspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Keçiörengücü: Keskin B. (Suspended)

There will not play in Erzurumspor: Ozhan F. (Suspended) Sasi F. (Inactive) Yigit E. (Suspended)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:24. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Keçiörengücü won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Keciorengucu	8	3	4	1	17:10	7	13

Last Results with these Odds

Keçiörengücü - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.66%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Erzurumspor - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.53%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
14.02.26	Bodrumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:3 ✺
08.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Bandırmaspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Keçiörengücü - Gaziantep	1:5 ✺
Turkish First League
31.01.26	Çorum - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Keçiörengücü - Boluspor	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW
- Erzurumspor
Turkish First League
09.02.26	Sakaryaspor - Erzurumspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.26	Fenerbahçe - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish First League
31.01.26	Erzurumspor - Sarıyer	4:0 ✺
24.01.26	Pendikspor - Erzurumspor	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Erzurumspor - Amed SK	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
24.09.25	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1
10.03.25	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	1:3
27.10.24	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	4:0
10.03.24	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	0:2
21.10.23	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1
08.03.23	Erzurumspor - Keçiörengücü	0:1
17.09.22	Keçiörengücü - Erzurumspor	3:2

Upcoming Matches