Match Info

1. Lig - Round 21

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Kâzım Karabekir Stadyumu (Erzurum)

Referee: Mertoglu E. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 MAX, Tabii, TRT Spor


	Erzurumspor		Amed SK

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.53	2.92	2.82	Watch
	2.58	3.05	2.83	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.5	2.89	2.74	Watch
	2.54	2.9	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.66)	2.96 ↓ (3.08)	2.8 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzurumspor
36.5%

Draw
30.9%

Amed SK
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

30.2%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

30.1%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzurumspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Amed SK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzurumspor than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amed SK than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Erzurumspor - Amed SK Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Erzurumspor will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Erzurumspor (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Erzurumspor (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Orbanic M. (G) 53. Ovacikli O. 4. Gerxhaliu A. 22. Yumlu M. (C) 3. Kirtay Y. 6. Baiye B. 77. Keser B. 24. Crociata G. 8. Akgun S. 99. Fettahoglu M. 10. Tozlu E.	31. Kardesler E. (G) 7. Ucar M. 21. Yesil M. 47. Demirtas K. 3. Kaldirim H. A. 11. Traore A. 17. Poko A. 27. Moreno D. 91. Saba D. 33. Afena-Gyan F. 20. Hasani F.
Substitutes
11. Akpinar M. 1. Anapa E. (G) 23. Bayrak C. 35. Erdem E. 16. Kabak A. 65. Rodriguez M. 17. Sarikaya S. 29. Sylla C. 2. Ulgen A. 9. Yener H.	14. Bassan E. 10. Cekdar O. 99. Fernando Andrade 93. Girisen Y. 77. Hanalp C. 94. Ilik E. 96. Sapan V. (G) 15. Serbest T. 30. Tarhan Y.
Coaches
Ozbalta S.	Kaloglu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Demirtas K. 🟨,
38', Ucar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
63', 1 - 0, Tozlu E. ⚽, Crociata G. (A),
64', Tozlu E. 🟨,
65', Akgun S. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
73', Afena-Gyan F. ↓, Fernando Andrade ↑,
73', Fettahoglu M. ↓, Bayrak C. ↑,
74', Keser B. ↓, Sylla C. ↑,
80', Demirtas K. 🟨,
84', Crociata G. ↓, Kabak A. ↑,
85', Tozlu E. ↓, Yener H. ↑,
85', Poko A. ↓, Serbest T. ↑,
85', Saba D. ↓, Hanalp C. ↑,
90+1', Ucar M. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 0, Baiye B. ⚽, Sylla C. (A),
90+8', Sylla C. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Lig).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 3.

Erzurumspor is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Amed is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Amed may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Erzurumspor won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Erzurumspor won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzurumspor
Turkish Cup
15.01.26	Erzurumspor - Çaykur Rizespor	2:0 ✺
Turkish First League
11.01.26	Sivasspor - Erzurumspor	0:2 ✺
28.12.25	Erzurumspor - Çorum	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Kocaelispor - Erzurumspor	3:1 ✺
Turkish First League
20.12.25	Bandırmaspor - Erzurumspor	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWWLW
- Amed SK
Turkish First League
09.01.26	Amed SK - Çorum	1:0 ✺
28.12.25	Amed SK - Igdirspor	3:0 ✺
22.12.25	Bodrumspor - Amed SK	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Amed SK - Bandırmaspor	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Umraniyespor - Amed SK	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
18.08.25	Amed SK - Erzurumspor	2:2
16.03.25	Amed SK - Erzurumspor	1:2
03.11.24	Erzurumspor - Amed SK	2:0
Turkish Second League Play Offs
16.05.17	Amed SK - Erzurumspor	1:1
12.05.17	Erzurumspor - Amed SK	1:0
Turkish Second League White Group
15.01.17	Amed SK - Erzurumspor	1:1
03.09.16	Erzurumspor - Amed SK	1:2

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