Match Info

Division 1 - Round 11

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Keflavíkurvöllur (Keflavík)


	Keflavík		Selfoss

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	4.85	6	Watch
	1.42	5.18	5.93
				Watch
	1.33	4.8	7.5
	1.32	5.1	6.88	Watch
	1.32	5	6.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.46)	4.99 ↑ (4.18)	6.57 ↑ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keflavík
67.8%

Draw
18.3%

Selfoss
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

21.6%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

20.8%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keflavík has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Keflavík's performance.

Selfoss has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keflavík than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Selfoss than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Keflavík - Selfoss Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Keflavík will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Keflavík will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Olafsson S. (G) 11. Al Ghoul M. 18. Bjarnason E. 20. Brigic M. 8. Gudmundsson A. 24. Gudmundsson G. 3. Johannesson A. 22. Magnusson A. 6. Magnusson S. (C) 14. Mudrazija M. 92. Sigfusson K.	1. Blakala R. (G) 4. Berntsson A. 9. Birgisson A. 21. Brynjolfsson F. 10. Gil N. 5. Petursson J. (C) 11. Sanabria A. 3. Sveinsson R. 28. Sverrisson E. 15. Vokes A. 32. Vokes A.
Substitutes
25. Elvarsson F. 5. Fridriksson S. 12. Gissurarson R. (G) 9. Hakonarson V. 10. Ljubicic S. 23. Ragnarsson E. 7. Saevarsson G.	6. Einarsson D. 77. Einarsson E. 25. Hardarson S. 12. Kjartansson A. (G) 2. Sigurdsson I. 8. Tanke 7. Willard H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 1 - 0, Gudmundsson A. ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Sveinsson R. ⚽,
15', 2 - 1, Al Ghoul M. ⚽, Mudrazija M. (A),
18', 2 - 2, Vokes A. ⚽, Brynjolfsson F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Brynjolfsson F. ↓, Sigurdsson I. ↑,
69', Mudrazija M. ↓, Ljubicic S. ↑,
71', Gil N. 🟨,
73', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Ragnarsson E. ↑,
73', Sigfusson K. ↓, Saevarsson G. ↑,
74', Sanabria A. ↓, Tanke ↑,
74', Birgisson A. ↓, Hardarson S. ↑,
74', Gil N. ↓, Willard H. ↑,
76', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Elvarsson F. ↑,
80', 3 - 2, Elvarsson F. ⚽,
86', Al Ghoul M. 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 11 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Keflavík won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Keflavík is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Keflavík won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:7. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Keflavík won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keflavík
Icelandic Division 1
26.06.25	Njarðvík - Keflavík	3:1 ✺
22.06.25	Keflavík - IR Reykjavik	0:0 ✺
Icelandic Cup
18.06.25	Stjarnan - Keflavík	4:2 ✺
Icelandic Division 1
14.06.25	Völsungur - Keflavík	1:1 ✺
09.06.25	Keflavík - Fylkir	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LTLTT
- UMF Selfoss
Icelandic Division 1
27.06.25	Selfoss - Leiknir Reykjavík	2:2 ✺
22.06.25	Thor Akureyri - Selfoss	2:0 ✺
14.06.25	Selfoss - Throttur Reykjavik	0:2 ✺
09.06.25	Fjölnir - Selfoss	0:2 ✺
04.06.25	HK Kópavogur - Selfoss	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Icelandic League Cup
28.02.25	Keflavík - Selfoss	3:0
28.02.21	Keflavík - Selfoss	2:0
Icelandic Division 1
02.08.17	Selfoss - Keflavík	1:2
25.05.17	Keflavík - Selfoss	2:2
01.08.16	Selfoss - Keflavík	0:0
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
20.09.12	Selfoss - Keflavík	2:1
02.07.12	Keflavík - Selfoss	2:2

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