Match Info

1. Lig - Round 37

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Aktepe Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Olcar B. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, Tabii, TRT Avaz, TRT Spor


	Keçiörengücü		Ankaragücü

	1	X	2
	8	5	1.27	Watch
	6	4.33	1.4
	7	5	1.35
	7.81	4.88	1.32
	8.27	4.94	1.35	Watch
	6.5	4.2	1.4
	7.65	5	1.33
	7	5	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.28 ↑ (2.71)	4.79 ↑ (3.61)	1.35 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Keçiörengücü
12.6%

Draw
19.2%

Ankaragücü
68.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

26%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

24.9%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Keçiörengücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Keçiörengücü's form might have worsened.

Ankaragücü has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+28.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ankaragücü's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (+23.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Keçiörengücü, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ankaragücü than the current prediction. (-30.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ankaragücü, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	5.9%	76.5%

Keçiörengücü - Ankaragücü Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Keçiörengücü will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Ankaragücü will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ankaragücü: 56.3% – 96.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Ankaragücü (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ankaragücü will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Ankaragücü (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Erdogan M. (G) 19. Yildiz U. 5. Caliskan O. 15. Sengul A. 73. Lus S. 16. Ayaydin O. 6. Develi E. 20. Ayaroglu H. 8. Rroca E. 21. Ezeh F. 10. Dembele P. M.	91. Cihan G. (G) 16. Cokcalis I. 5. Coelho D. 21. Tekdemir M. 26. Schulz N. 11. Dalcio 6. Turkmen C. 23. Guneren A. K. 22. Rotariu D. 7. Owusu 77. Bilazer H.
Substitutes
17. Akan M. 44. Caulker S. 11. Dere A. 55. Diouf M. 52. Duman A. 53. Kilic H. 4. Kula M. 36. Nahirci O. 18. Satilmis E. (G) 95. Traore A.	24. Aktas O. 9. Bajic R. 29. Cephas R. 28. Demir F. (G) 40. Gultekin Y. 94. Laura G. 3. Pehlivan I. 10. Rakoczy M. 90. Simsek M. 66. Yildirim B.
Coaches
Agcay S.	Kaplan M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
35', Coelho D. ↓, Cephas R. ↑,
43', 0 - 1, Owusu ⚽, Rotariu D. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Yildiz U. ⚽, Rroca E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ezeh F. ↓, Dere A. ↑,
46', Dembele P. M. ↓, Kilic H. ↑,
46', Rroca E. ↓, Duman A. ↑,
57', Turkmen C. ↓, Gultekin Y. ↑,
61', Caliskan O. 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Owusu (Pen),
64', Sengul A. ↓, Kula M. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Cephas R. ⚽, Schulz N. (A),
67', Develi E. ↓, Nahirci O. ↑,
76', Rotariu D. ↓, Simsek M. ↑,
76', Owusu ↓, Laura G. ↑,
76', Dalcio ↓, Rakoczy M. ↑,
84', Nahirci O. 🟨,
85', Nahirci O. 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 3, Yildiz U. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 1.

Keçiörengücü has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ankaragücü has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Keçiörengücü may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ankaragücü is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Keçiörengücü: Donertas K. (Suspended) Silva M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Ankaragücü: Celik O. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Keçiörengücü won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Keçiörengücü won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
27.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Umraniyespor	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	İstanbulspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Keçiörengücü - Şanlıurfaspor	4:1 ✺
05.04.25	Manisa FK - Keçiörengücü	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LLWWW
- MKE Ankaragücü
Turkish First League
27.04.25	Ankaragücü - Çorum	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Manisa FK - Ankaragücü	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Ankaragücü - Boluspor	2:2 ✺
09.04.25	Pendikspor - Ankaragücü	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ankaragücü - Gençlerbirliği	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
04.01.25	Ankaragücü - Keçiörengücü	2:0
21.05.22	Keçiörengücü - Ankaragücü	1:2
26.12.21	Ankaragücü - Keçiörengücü	2:1
Club Friendly
09.01.20	Ankaragücü - Keçiörengücü	0:1
Turkish Second League Red Group
31.01.16	Ankaragücü - Keçiörengücü	2:1
19.09.15	Keçiörengücü - Ankaragücü	0:1

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