Match Info

1. Lig - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yusuf Ziya Onis (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Metoglu M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	TOD
Turkey	17:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Digiturk, Tabii Spor 6


	Fatih Karagümrükspor		Keçiörengücü

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.38	3.37	2.66	Watch
	2.45	3.61	2.82
	2.39	3.55	2.7	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.65
	2.33	3.3	2.59	Watch
	2.32	3.35	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.3)	3.41 ↓ (3.53)	2.68 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fatih Karagümrükspor
39%

Draw
26.9%

Keçiörengücü
34.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.9%

26%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

27.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fatih Karagümrükspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Keçiörengücü has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fatih Karagümrükspor than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Keçiörengücü than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Karagümrük will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silvestri M. (G) 25. Sarikaya M. 4. Biraschi D. (C) 28. Cinar A. 21. Baskale C. 19. Onogo Y. 20. Siopis M. 26. Ahmed T. 5. Akbaba E. 41. Esen J. 9. Tosun C.	1. Erdogan M. (G) 12. Keskin B. 3. Wellington Nascimento 4. Celik A. 33. Lus S. 14. Akdag I. (C) 6. Develi E. 7. Roshi O. 20. Edumondo A. 21. Ezeh F. 55. Diouf M.
Substitutes
22. Civelek R. 11. Cukur T. 14. Doh M. 27. Kadioglu M. 7. Kalayci B. 33. Kurukalip C. 72. Pesic A. 23. Sen B. (G) 8. Tokoz D. 6. Yalcin R.	37. Aksu D. 22. Ayan H. 16. Ayaydin O. 5. Caliskan O. 9. Demirel O. 77. Fofana M. 10. Jefferson 45. Nabian H. 18. Satilmis E. (G) 19. Yilmaz E.
Coaches
Stanojevic A.	Korkmaz O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Ahmed T. 🟨,
24', Baskale C. 🟨,
34', Wellington Nascimento 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Diouf M. ⚽, Develi E. (A),
45+3', Siopis M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Siopis M. ↓, Doh M. ↑,
46', Edumondo A. ↓, Jefferson ↑,
63', Ezeh F. ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
63', Roshi O. ↓, Nabian H. ↑,
65', 0 - 2, Diouf M. ⚽, Fofana M. (A),
66', Esen J. ↓, Civelek R. ↑,
66', Onogo Y. ↓, Tokoz D. ↑,
66', Tosun C. ↓, Pesic A. ↑,
73', Erdogan M. 🟨,
75', Lus S. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Civelek R. ⚽,
85', Develi E. ↓, Ayaydin O. ↑,
90+4', Lus S. ↓, Aksu D. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Yusuf Ziya Onis.

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 12th and 7th in the Promotion - 1. Lig Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Karagümrük won 2.

Karagümrük has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Keçiörengücü shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Keçiörengücü: Duman A. (Inactive).

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Karagümrük has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:15 (averaging 0.9:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Karagümrük against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 5:9 goals (averaging 1:1.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Keciorengucu	12	5	5	2	23:15	8	20
10	Karagumruk	12	4	4	4	16:15	1	16

Last Results with these Odds

Fatih Karagümrükspor - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.86%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Keçiörengücü - the odds 2.69 are the expected chance of winning is 34.14%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fatih Karagümrükspor
Turkish First League
15.10.26	Mardin 1969 - Fatih Karagümrükspor	1:0 ✺
11.10.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Muğlaspor	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Erokspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Manisa FK	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Batman Petrolspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTWTL
- Keçiörengücü
Turkish First League
14.10.26	Keçiörengücü - Igdirspor	0:0 ✺
09.10.26	Bodrumspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Gençlerbirliği - Keçiörengücü	0:1 ✺
Turkish First League
19.09.26	Keçiörengücü - Sivasspor	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Vanspor - Keçiörengücü	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
27.04.25	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:0
22.12.24	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1
12.07.20	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:0
22.12.19	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	0:2
Turkish Second League White Group
17.12.16	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:2
Turkish Second League Red Group
17.01.16	Keçiörengücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	3:1
06.09.15	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Keçiörengücü	1:3

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