Match Info

NORWAY: OBOS-LIGAEN - ROUND 6

Date: 7 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Gjemselund Stadion (Kongsvinger)

Referee: Berg M. (Nor)


	Kongsvinger		Jerv

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.8	4	Watch
	1.83	3.7	3.6
	1.88	3.7	3.7
	1.85	3.89	4.01
	1.85	3.5	3.5
	1.83	3.92	3.9
	1.85	3.7	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.24)	3.74 ↑ (3.55)	3.76 ↑ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kongsvinger
50.4%

Draw
24.9%

Jerv
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

25.9%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

24.8%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kongsvinger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kongsvinger's performance.

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jerv might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kongsvinger than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kongsvinger that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jerv could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Kongsvinger - Jerv Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Kongsvinger will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kongsvinger: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 11 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Kongsvinger won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Kongsvinger is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Kongsvinger won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 27-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Kongsvinger won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 15-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kongsvinger IL Toppfotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.23	Sandnes Ulf - Kongsvinger	1:2 ✺
30.04.23	Kongsvinger - Hødd	0:3 ✺
22.04.23	Kristiansund - Kongsvinger	2:0 ✺
16.04.23	Kongsvinger - Mjøndalen	2:0 ✺
10.04.23	Bryne - Kongsvinger	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLLWL
- FK Jerv
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.23	Jerv - Mjøndalen	2:3 ✺
30.04.23	Moss - Jerv	2:1 ✺
22.04.23	Jerv - Skeid	3:2 ✺
16.04.23	Åsane - Jerv	1:2 ✺
10.04.23	Jerv - Ranheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
17.10.20	Kongsvinger - Jerv	1:1
10.08.20	Jerv - Kongsvinger	1:1
09.11.19	Jerv - Kongsvinger	0:2
28.04.19	Kongsvinger - Jerv	1:1
28.10.18	Jerv - Kongsvinger	1:2
15.04.18	Kongsvinger - Jerv	2:0
Club Friendly
08.03.18	Jerv - Kongsvinger	1:1

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