Match Info

BULGARIA: Parva liga - Round 5

Date: 16 August 2024, Friday

Location: Nikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex (Plovdiv)

Referee: Georgiev K. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 10
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 10
Montenegro	Sportklub 10
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 10


	Krumovgrad		Beroe Stara Zagora

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.8	Watch
	2.05	2.95	3.6
	2.1	3	3.75	Watch
	2.11	3.04	4.01
	2.05	3.09	3.94	Watch
	2.05	3.16	3.84	Watch
	2.1	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.93)	3.05 ↑ (2.9)	3.81 ↓ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Krumovgrad
44.9%

Draw
30.6%

Beroe Stara Zagora
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

31.2%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

33.6%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Krumovgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Beroe Stara Zagora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Krumovgrad, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beroe Stara Zagora than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	14.3%	50%

Krumovgrad - Beroe Stara Zagora Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Krumovgrad will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Beroe will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beroe: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Georgiev Y. (G) 91. Velev V. 5. Simic M. 44. Katsarov B. (C) 4. Lucas Santana 2. Ali D. 18. Daniel 22. Dost E. 19. Milev N. 10. Yusein S. 17. Patrick Luan	1. Arthur (G) 2. Sarriegi O. 4. Ramos Mingo F. 3. Salomoni J. 5. Squadrone L. 6. Govea J. (C) 19. Algarra C. 24. Gavrilov S. 17. Pineda J. 12. Vinicius Belotti 9. Godoy L.
Substitutes
13. Diego Raposo 11. Georgiev A. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 24. Marin L. 70. Matheus Souza 14. Popov S. 25. Rabotov S. 7. Tsvetanov M. 77. Yusein O.	23. Ceijas K. 15. Espinoza E. 96. Rendeiro R. (G) 18. Rusenov S. 7. Sagardia F. 21. Salido A. 10. Touma G. 14. Valkov V.
Coaches
Ribarski A.	Acciari J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Daniel 🟨,
45', Patrick Luan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, Godoy L. ⚽, Vinicius Belotti (A),
64', Vinicius Belotti ↓, Espinoza E. ↑,
64', Milev N. ↓, Diego Raposo ↑,
64', Dost E. ↓, Matheus Souza ↑,
67', Sarriegi O. ↓, Ceijas K. ↑,
76', Ramos Mingo F. 🟨,
77', Pineda J. 🟨,
78', Lucas Santana 🟨,
82', Arthur 🟨,
85', Gavrilov S. 🟨,
85', Gavrilov S. ↓, Valkov V. ↑,
90+2', Yusein S. 🟨,
90+4', Ali D. 🟨,
90+5', Salomoni J. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Conference League Group: )).

Krumovgrad is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Beroe is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Krumovgrad will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Krumovgrad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Krumovgrad won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.08.24	Levski Sofia - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
04.08.24	Krumovgrad - Botev Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
26.07.24	Arda Kardzhali - Krumovgrad	1:0 ✺
19.07.24	Krumovgrad - Slavia Sofia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Krumovgrad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL
- Beroe Stara Zagora
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.08.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:2 ✺
05.08.24	Botev Vratsa - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:2 ✺
29.07.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:0 ✺
22.07.24	Septemvri Sofia - Beroe Stara Zagora	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Beroe Stara Zagora	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.07.24	Beroe Stara Zagora - Krumovgrad	1:0
Bulgarian Parva Liga
03.12.23	Krumovgrad - Beroe Stara Zagora	1:0
07.08.23	Beroe Stara Zagora - Krumovgrad	2:0

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