Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	La Fiorita		Tre Penne

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.32	3	2.82	Watch
	2.26	3.12	2.72
	2.38	3.14	2.87	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.8
	2.3	3.2	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.7)	3.06 ↑ (3)	2.81 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Fiorita
38.8%

Draw
29.3%

Tre Penne
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

30.4%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

30.7%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Fiorita has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Tre Penne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Fiorita than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

La Fiorita - Tre Penne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Guidi T. ⚽, Semprini J. (A),
25', Mosquera S. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
70', 1 - 1, Bartoli T. ⚽, Nigretti G. (A),

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Fiorita won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

La Fiorita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, La Fiorita won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, La Fiorita won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
7	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4:3	1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Tre Penne - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.79%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Fiorita
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
05.05.26	Fiorentino - La Fiorita	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	La Fiorita - Fiorentino	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Fiorentino - La Fiorita	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	La Fiorita - Cosmos	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Domagnano - La Fiorita	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWWLT
- Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
06.05.26	Cosmos - Tre Penne	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Tre Penne - Cosmos	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Tre Penne - San Giovanni	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	AC Libertas - Tre Penne	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tre Penne - Cailungo	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
31.01.26	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	2:0
28.09.25	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	1:1
19.01.25	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	2:0
01.09.24	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	1:1
San Marino Coppa Titano
06.03.24	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	4:1
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.12.23	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	1:2
05.03.23	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	1:1

La Fiorita - Tre Penne: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide