Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 30

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Tre Penne		San Giovanni

	1	X	2
	1.17	5.9	11
	1.11	7.62	12.95
	1.15	7.16	12.84	Watch
	1.13	7	15
	1.22	6.53	10.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.37)	6.84 ↑ (4.75)	12.42 ↑ (6.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tre Penne
79.2%

Draw
13.4%

San Giovanni
7.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.1%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

18.8%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tre Penne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tre Penne's performance.

San Giovanni has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Giovanni might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tre Penne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Giovanni than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Giovanni could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tre Penne - San Giovanni Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Badalassi I. ⚽, Turchetta G. (A),
34', 2 - 0, Pieri R. ⚽, Nigretti G. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', 3 - 0, Fabbri F. ⚽,
72', 4 - 0, Berardi F. ⚽, Turchetta G. (A),
79', Bastianelli T. 🟥,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Tre Penne is Qualified for Campionato Sammarinese (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

San Giovanni may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tre Penne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 35:11. (average 3.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tre Penne won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 3.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
13	San Giovanni	4	1	0	3	4:10	-6	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
19.04.26	AC Libertas - Tre Penne	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tre Penne - Cailungo	6:1 ✺
08.04.26	Tre Penne - Virtus	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Tre Penne - Folgore	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Murata - Tre Penne	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWTTW
- SS San Giovanni
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
18.04.26	San Giovanni - Domagnano	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	San Giovanni - San Marino Academy U22	1:0 ✺
07.04.26	La Fiorita - San Giovanni	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	San Giovanni - Faetano	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Folgore - San Giovanni	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
10.02.26	San Giovanni - Tre Penne	0:2
29.03.25	Tre Penne - San Giovanni	3:2
30.11.24	San Giovanni - Tre Penne	1:1
10.02.24	San Giovanni - Tre Penne	1:3
07.10.23	Tre Penne - San Giovanni	5:0
01.04.23	San Giovanni - Tre Penne	2:3
04.12.22	Tre Penne - San Giovanni	3:1

Tre Penne - San Giovanni: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide