Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Henri-Desgranges (La Roche-sur-Yon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	La Roche VF		Valenciennes

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.20	3.00
	2.15	3.15	3.1
	2.29	3.35	3.25
	2.26	3.27	2.91
	2.2	3.2	3.15
	2.17	3.06	3.14
	2.16	3.2	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.12)	3.2 ↓ (3.24)	3.09 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Roche VF
41.8%

Draw
28.6%

Valenciennes
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Roche VF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Valenciennes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Roche VF than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valenciennes than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

La Roche VF - Valenciennes Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. La Roche VF will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Valenciennes will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Mahop M. (G) 27. Lamy H. 18. Rabuel M. 15. Jacob M. 29. Violleau G. 4. Behlow J. 8. Bensoula K. 26. Beaulieu J. (C) 10. Ndiaye M. 20. Araujo A. 9. Samb M.	1. Louchet J. (G) 22. Goprou D. 5. Passi B. 6. Zogba M. 28. Wahib A. 25. Belloumou S. (C) 8. Rouai M. 19. Marechal T. 10. Diomande D. 11. Ekra R. 18. Courtet G.
Substitutes
11. Bangoura D. 14. Baret Y. 25. Evora Moniz R. 22. Morel E. 16. Raux J. (G) 28. Renaudineau T. 17. Vrignon M.	7. Abi C. 2. Abu D. 27. Amir Z. 26. Boiteau L. 40. Lacombe J. (G) 21. Marcel V. 20. Meite A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Rouai M. ⚽, Zogba M. (A),
18', Diomande D. 🟨,
21', Wahib A. 🟥,
24', 1 - 1, Ndiaye M. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', Behlow J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Diomande D. ↓, Amir Z. ↑,
46', Behlow J. ↓, Evora Moniz R. ↑,
49', 1 - 2, Goprou D. ⚽, Marechal T. (A),
51', 2 - 2, Araujo A. ⚽, Ndiaye M. (A),
58', Belloumou S. ↓, Abu D. ↑,
59', Rabuel M. 🟨,
71', Araujo A. ↓, Vrignon M. ↑,
75', Bensoula K. ↓, Bangoura D. ↑,
75', Jacob M. ↓, Renaudineau T. ↑,
83', Courtet G. ↓, Abi C. ↑,
83', Ekra R. ↓, Marcel V. ↑,
90+1', Marechal T. ↓, Meite A. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Vrignon M. ⚽, Beaulieu J. (A),

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 3rd in the Promotion ~ Ligue 2 (Promotion: ) and 15th).

La Roche VF has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Valenciennes has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Valenciennes could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

La Roche VF is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	La Roche	9	6	3	0	15:8	7	21
15	Valenciennes	9	2	2	5	9:14	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Valenciennes - the odds 3.24 are the expected chance of winning is 28.37%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Roche Vendée Football
French Ligue 3
12.09.26	Villefranche - La Roche VF	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	La Roche VF - Quevilly	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Orleans - La Roche VF	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	La Roche VF - Cannes	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Amiens - La Roche VF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TTWTW
- Valenciennes FC
French Ligue 3
12.09.26	Valenciennes - Fleury 91	1:2 ✺
03.09.26	Rouen FC - Valenciennes	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Valenciennes - Concarneau	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Valenciennes	2:1 ✺
14.08.26	Valenciennes - Bourg-Péronnas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTLW

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