Match Info

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday


	Lanús		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.82	3.70
	2.30	3.00	3.30
	2.14	3.05	3.75
	2.35	3.00	3.58
	2.33	3.04	3.34
	2.25	2.85	3.50
	2.28	2.90	3.72	Watch
	2.26	2.90	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.19)	2.95 ↑ (2.91)	3.54 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
41.5%

Draw
32%

Vélez Sársfield
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

31.9%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

31%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Lanús - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 2nd in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 2.

Lanús has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Vélez has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lanús could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Vélez has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Lanús is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lanús has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:27 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lanús against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 17:10 goals (averaging 1.4:0.8 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Velez Sarsfield: 7.41% Lanus: 4.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.3%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.10.26	Newells Old Boys - Lanús	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Deportivo Riestra - Lanús	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.26	Vélez Sársfield - Platense	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Tigre	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	0:1
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0
Copa Argentina
21.05.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.02.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	0:0
20.11.24	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	0:0
04.07.23	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
20.07.22	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	2:2

Lanús - Vélez Sársfield: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide