Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martinez S. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	AFA Play, ESPN, ESPN Premium
Bolivia	15:00	ESPN
Mexico	13:00	Disney+
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	Lanús		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.10	4.75	Watch
	1.93	3.25	4.10
	2.02	3.10	4.00	Watch
	1.93	3.35	4.69
	2.24	3.07	3.58
	1.91	3.30	4.45
	1.98	3.14	4.59	Watch
	2.14	3.00	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.19)	3.16 ↑ (2.91)	4.24 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lanús
47.5%

Draw
30.1%

Vélez Sársfield
22.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

31.9%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

31%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	57.1%	0%

Lanús - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Lanús (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale J. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 77. Besozzi L. 10. Marcelino Moreno 11. Salvio E. 20. Wlk A.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 32. Silvero T. 16. Magallan L. 3. Gomez E. (C) 29. Aliendro R. 8. Robertone L. 35. Arias M. 37. Policella J. 39. Aguirre T. 77. Martinez R.
Substitutes
38. Acosta B. 23. Carrera R. 35. De Jesus R. 15. Loaiza R. 42. Lobos G. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 16. Sepulveda M. 19. Valois Y. 8. Watson F. N.	5. Baeza C. 19. Cristaldo L. 18. Escobar S. 48. Feler L. 15. Godoy D. 21. Gordon J. 47. Pereyra A. 46. Piedrabuena U. 30. Piola L. 23. Sanguinetti F. (G) 10. Valdes D. 17. Veron A.
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Robertone L. 🟨,
19', Aguirre T. 🟨,
34', Aliendro R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Aguirre T. ↓, Valdes D. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Marcich S. ⚽, Besozzi L. (A),
67', Wlk A. ↓, Valois Y. ↑,
67', Besozzi L. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
73', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
74', Arias M. ↓, Godoy D. ↑,
74', Policella J. ↓, Escobar S. ↑,
81', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
81', Salvio E. ↓, Lobos G. ↑,
88', Carrera R. 🟨,
90+1', Robertone L. ↓, Feler L. ↑,
90+1', Gomez E. ↓, Piola L. ↑,
90+4', Medina A. ↓, Perez G. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 0, Marchiori T. (Own goal),

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 6th in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals) and 4th in the Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Playoffs - 1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 2.

Lanús has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Vélez have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Lanús could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Vélez has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lanús holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Lanús: Carrera R. (Inactive) Pena Biafore F. (Inactive) Romero L. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Vélez: Mammana E. (Ribs Injury) Pellegrini M. (Inactive) Veron A. (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Lanús has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:27 (averaging 1.1:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lanús against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 17:10 goals (averaging 1.4:0.8 per game).

Outrights of Argentinian Liga Profesional for now

Velez Sarsfield: 4.17% Lanus: 3.75%

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.3%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.10.26	Newells Old Boys - Lanús	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Deportivo Riestra - Lanús	0:3 ✺
06.09.26	Lanús - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWWWL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.26	Vélez Sársfield - Platense	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Tigre	3:2 ✺
11.09.26	Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.03.26	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	0:1
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0
Copa Argentina
21.05.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
21.02.25	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	0:0
20.11.24	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	0:0
04.07.23	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	0:1
20.07.22	Lanús - Vélez Sársfield	2:2

Upcoming Matches