Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 29 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Lanús		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4
	1.95	3.25	4	Watch
	1.97	3.25	4.2
	1.83	3.37	4.39
	1.91	3.2	3.9	Watch
	1.97	3.32	3.89	Watch
	1.93	3.3	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.68)	3.3 ↓ (3.65)	4.06 ↓ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
48.7%

Draw
28.3%

Cuiabá
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

25.4%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

25.1%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lanús's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lanús, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	30.8%	15.4%

Lanús - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Aguerre A. (G) 24. Caceres J. 4. Perez G. 13. Canale Dominguez J. (C) 28. Ontivero O. 23. Dominguez N. 19. Gonzalez M. 20. Cabrera B. 8. Boggio L. 16. Watson F. N. 27. Torres J.	1. Walter (C) 3. Allyson 30. Lucas Mineiro 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 10. Max Alves 21. Railan 27. Denilson Alves 11. Eliel 9. Pitta I. 25. Clayson
Substitutes
7. Acosta L. 35. Aguirre B. 40. Alvarez F. 25. Aquino D. 32. Carrera R. 12. Claa N. (G) 15. Loaiza R. 21. Lotti A. 6. Luciatti A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 3. Morgantini N. 17. Rodriguez A.	97. Andre Luis 34. Bruno Alves 44. Gabriel 19. Gimenez L. 8. Guilherme Madruga 7. Jonathan Cafu 4. Marllon 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 12. Rhyan (G)
Coaches
Zielinski R.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Allyson 🟨,
29', Torres J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Ramon 🟨,
51', 0 - 1, Pitta I. ⚽, Denilson Alves (A),
63', Watson F. N. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
64', Gonzalez M. ↓, Marcelino Moreno ↑,
67', Cabrera B. 🟨,
69', Eliel ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
70', Clayson ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
70', Boggio L. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
70', Cabrera B. ↓, Loaiza R. ↑,
71', Railan 🟨,
75', Pitta I. ↓, Gimenez L. ↑,
76', Max Alves 🟨,
77', Torres J. ↓, Lotti A. ↑,
85', Denilson Alves ↓, Guilherme Madruga ↑,
86', Max Alves ↓, Marllon ↑,
90+5', Loaiza R. 🟨,

Preview

Lanús is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Cuiabá is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

Lanús is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Cuiabá is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lanús could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Cuiabá have a series of home games.

Lanús will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lanús won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.05.24	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
20.05.24	San Lorenzo - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.24	Lanús - Metropolitanos	5:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.05.24	Lanús - Independiente Rivadavia	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.05.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Lanús	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWLW
- Cuiabá EC
Copa do Brasil
23.05.24	Cuiabá - Goiás	1:1 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.05.24	Cuiabá - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
11.05.24	Cuiabá - Vila Nova	4:3 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.05.24	Cuiabá - Metropolitanos	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.05.24	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Cuiabá - Lanús	1:1

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