Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Domenico Francioni (Latina)

Referee: Dasso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Latina		Ostia Mare

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.20	3.50
	1.98	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.06	3.25	4.04
	1.98	3.21	3.69	Watch
	2.02	3	4
	2.01	3.3	3.71	Watch
	1.97	3.2	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.11)	3.19 ↓ (3.27)	3.73 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Latina
46.3%

Draw
28.9%

Ostia Mare
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.1%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27.7%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Latina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Ostia Mare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Latina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Latina - Ostia Mare Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Latina will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Latina (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
67. Mastrantonio D. (G) 5. Bruscagin M. 13. Marenco F. (C) 2. Ercolano E. 16. Sussi C. 36. Lipani J. 4. De Cristofaro A. 27. D'Angelo Sonny 70. Tomaselli G. 28. Plescia V. 7. Baez J.	1. Vertua F. (G) 4. Piroli D. (C) 13. Brosco R. 5. Giordani P. 27. Vagnoni M. 77. Tosku F. 32. Casolari F. 8. Greco D. 71. Carbone F. 17. D'Andrea F. 9. Tonin R.
Substitutes
1. Basti M. (G) 6. Calabrese B. 8. Castorri G. 77. Cioffi A. 30. De Ciancio R. 66. De Marchi D. 19. Di Giovannantonio G. 45. Keita C. 99. Lo Bianco A. 32. Parodi G. 3. Porro M. 96. Sbaccanti C. (G) 9. Sylla Y.	10. Badje I. 6. Buono D. 66. Castaldo A. 30. Donsah G. 18. Felici N. 14. Galastri F. 16. Gerbaudo M. 33. Mercadante E. 22. Morlupo A. (G) 3. Orfano M. 11. Parigini V. 23. Spinosa M. 24. Tesauro E. 19. Wade I.
Coaches
Volpe G.	D'Antoni D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Plescia V. ⚽,
41', 1 - 1, Vagnoni M. ⚽,
45+3', Baez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Plescia V. ↓, Calabrese B. ↑,
46', Sussi C. ↓, Cioffi A. ↑,
66', Tonin R. ↓, Badje I. ↑,
72', Bruscagin M. 🟨,
76', D'Andrea F. ↓, Parigini V. ↑,
76', Greco D. ↓, Donsah G. ↑,
82', Lipani J. ↓, De Ciancio R. ↑,
83', D'Angelo Sonny ↓, Porro M. ↑,
84', Carbone F. 🟨,
87', Vagnoni M. ↓, Tesauro E. ↑,
88', Casolari F. 🟨,
89', Ercolano E. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 18th in the Serie C - Play Out and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Latina won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Ostia Mare may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Latina is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Latina has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:7 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Latina against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:4 goals (averaging 1:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Ostiamare	8	2	2	4	9:10	-1	8
17	Latina	7	1	3	3	6:9	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Latina Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
20.09.26	Reggiana - Latina	1:0 ✺
16.09.26	Latina - Guidonia Montecelio	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Gubbio - Latina	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
09.09.26	Grosseto - Latina	1:4 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
05.09.26	Latina - Forlì	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTLWW
- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
27.09.26	Ostia Mare - Forlì	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Gubbio - Ostia Mare	0:2 ✺
16.09.26	Ostia Mare - Ravenna	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sassari Torres - Ostia Mare	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Vis Pesaro - Ostia Mare	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Latina - Ostia Mare	2:1 penalties
Italian Serie D - Group G
05.01.20	Latina - Ostia Mare	1:2
01.09.19	Ostia Mare - Latina	2:2
17.02.19	Ostia Mare - Latina	0:0
28.10.18	Latina - Ostia Mare	0:1
28.01.18	Ostia Mare - Latina	1:1

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